Risk Radar: High-Impact Events Unpacked

GOLD

Gold prices pulled back slightly after stronger-than-expected JOLTS Job Openings data for April (7.39 million vs. 7.1 million expected). The drop was short-lived, serving as a retest of the broken structure, with potential for a continuation higher. However, both MACD and RSI are signaling possible bearish growth, which warrants caution. A bounce off the EMA200 would strengthen the bullish outlook.

From a fundamental perspective, growing concerns over U.S. economic resilience are boosting golds appeal. The OECD has cut its 2024 U.S. growth forecast from 2.2% to 1.6%, citing erratic tariff policies. It also downgraded global growth for 2025 from 3.1% to 2.9%, highlighting trade barriers, financial tightening, and rising policy uncertainty—factors that favor continued gold buying.

SILVER

Silver outperformed gold in yesterdays session, likely due to traders shifting focus from the now-expensive gold. With MACD and RSI reflecting steady bullish momentum, silver is nearing a breakout from consolidation. A confirmed move above 33.5028 would pave the way for continued appreciation.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)

The Dollar regained some ground after upbeat JOLTS data. Though April data is lagging, it suggested labor market resilience, possibly delaying Fed rate cuts to September. The market is still digesting last week‘s poor unemployment numbers and today’s ADP and ISM Services reports will shape sentiment further. Additionally, new 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum—effective today—could stir volatility.

Technically, while MACD and RSI support short-term bullishness, price remains constrained by bearish structures and the EMA200. A break above key resistance is needed to confirm a shift.

GBP/USD

The Pound is steadily rising and recently tested the 1.34998 level, finding support. MACD shows potential for further bullish continuation, though RSI signals market normalization, hinting at possible consolidation. We remain cautiously bullish, watching for signs of trend strength.

AUD/USD

The Aussie Dollar tested the EMA200 and currently shows mixed signals. While MACD leans toward a bullish recovery, RSI suggests an increase in selling pressure. The pair remains within a consolidation range. Until a clear breakout occurs, we maintain a cautiously bullish stance.

NZD/USD

The Kiwi failed to hold above 0.60455 and is now retracing. MACD and RSI show growing bearish sentiment, but price action still leans bullish overall. Key levels to watch include 0.59796 and the EMA200. Well continue to seek bullish opportunities until a shift is confirmed.

EUR/USD

Euro prices are showing signs of weakness after retracing from their recent high. MACD and RSI confirm growing bearish volume. While the pair remains in a bullish structure, any further weakness could result in deeper consolidation. A clear bounce off support or the EMA200 is needed before adding bullish exposure.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY is testing the EMA200 and showing signs of potential reversal. Despite MACD and RSI hinting at building bullish momentum, were maintaining a bearish outlook until a structural break higher occurs. Until then, short setups remain preferred.

USD/CHF

USD/CHF has lost upward steam, and bearish structure remains intact. While MACD and RSI suggest the possibility of bullish continuation, price action has yet to confirm this. Well stick with a bearish stance unless price breaks above the consolidation zone.

USD/CAD

The Canadian Dollar continues to strengthen, with USD/CAD approaching the key 1.38402 level. Despite a brief bounce, MACD signals renewed bearish volume, while RSI nears oversold territory. We anticipate further downside and will look for short opportunities unless a reversal becomes evident.