USDJPY Analysis: Japanese Yen is Still in a Technical Bull Market

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the USDJPY Price Forecast for May 27, 2025.

Fundamental Analysis of USDJPYUSDJPY Key Takeaways

• The Japanese yen is under pressure as markets digest comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who reaffirmed Japan‘s push toward a sustained 2% inflation target now closer than in the past three decades. Ueda hinted that monetary easing could be adjusted if economic conditions improve, raising market expectations around policy shifts.

• Investors are also eyeing this Wednesday’s 40-year Japanese government bond auction. While Monday offered a brief respite for ultra-long JGBs, weak auction demand could push yields higher and trigger a fresh wave of bond selling. Any positive demand might stabilize the market short term, but structural supply-demand issues remain unresolved.

Technical Analysis of USDJPYUSDJPY Daily Chart Insights

The Stochastic Oscillator on the daily chart has dropped below 20, signaling an oversold condition. This may suggest a possible rebound if the pair finds support, though strong bearish trends can persist in this zone.

Meanwhile, moving averages indicate clear downside momentum. The 13EMA has consistently suppressed price rebounds, with the current price still well below the 65EMA and 200EMA, reinforcing a bearish outlook for both mid- and long-term timeframes.

USDJPY 2-hour Chart Analysis

• Stochastic Oscillator: The blue fast line indicator continues to move downward after crossing the red slow line from the middle area, and has not yet entered the oversold zone (below 20). This shows that short-term bearish momentum still exists and the market still has downward potential.

• EMA system reveals a bearish pattern: the green 200EMA is at the top and tilted downward, the black 65EMA is below it and also tilted downward, and the purple 13EMA is at the bottom, directly forming a dynamic suppression on the price. This typical bearish arrangement indicates that the medium- and short-term trend is bearish.

• Key resistance area: The primary immediate resistance is near the purple 13EMA and the horizontal area of 143.00-143.10. This horizontal area was once support on the left side of the chart, and turned into resistance after breaking it. The price is currently consolidating below it. If the above resistance can be broken, the next resistance area worth paying attention to is the black 65EMA.

USDJPY Pivot Indicator

• According to the trading central in Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 143.05,

• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 143.05, first target 143.35 , second target 143.60;

• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 143.05, first target 142.50, second target 142.20.

USDJPY Price Forecast

The USDJPY Price Forecast indicates continued volatility as market participants digest Japans inflation trajectory and bond market signals. Given the solid bearish trend identified in the technical indicators, a cautious stance is advised. A break above the 143.10 resistance could trigger a short-term bullish rally, potentially pushing prices toward 143.60.

However, failure to break this level might lead to further downside pressure with possible targets near 142.20. Traders should monitor macroeconomic updates closely, especially any shifts in Japans monetary policy stance or unexpected bond auction results, which could quickly influence price direction.

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