Today's Volatility Radar

Market Insights

GOLD

Gold prices are clearly consolidating, as seen by their sideways movement between the EMA200 and the lower boundary. The latest bounce from the lower range was driven by renewed concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit, which has reignited interest in gold‘s safe-haven appeal. Moody’s downgraded the U.S. governments final AAA credit rating, citing persistent fiscal deficits and rising interest costs.

Technically, both the MACD and RSI are reflecting balanced momentum, reinforcing the ongoing consolidation. This is likely to persist until there's greater clarity on the U.S. economic outlook and the Federal Reserves stance on rate cuts.

However, it's important to note that investor sentiment appears to be shifting toward Bitcoin as a modern hedge, possibly due to the accelerated rise of AI and Web3 technologies. Trump's budgetary support for AI development has further boosted optimism toward cryptocurrencies, positioning BTC as an alternative safe haven in turbulent times—perhaps even more so than gold.

SILVER

Silver continues to trade within a tight consolidation range. No significant changes are noted. We remain cautious and await a directional breakout.

DXY

The Dollar is consolidating while markets assess the impact of the credit downgrade and incoming economic data. The MACD and RSI show muted momentum, but price action still respects the broader bullish structure.

In the immediate term, there may be volatility driven by sentiment around the credit rating. However, in the medium term, the technical structure supports a potential recovery. We recommend waiting for a clear break of structure before establishing any directional bias.

GBPUSD

The Pound remains in consolidation, with both MACD and RSI confirming this neutral stance. We await a clear directional breakout before initiating positions. Continued sideways movement is likely in the short term.

AUDUSD

AUD/USD is also consolidating, with price hovering near the EMA200 and support at 0.64082. While the MACD and RSI show early signs of bearish momentum, the overall price action remains range-bound. We maintain a neutral stance until a decisive break confirms trend continuation.

NZDUSD

The Kiwi is consolidating between the EMA200 and support at 0.58528, yet it presents clearer bearish signals compared to the Aussie. Both the MACD and RSI show building downside momentum, indicating a potential bearish bias in future sessions. We await confirmation through a break of support before committing.

EURUSD

The Euro appears poised to move lower, but is currently stuck in a consolidation. Technicals lean bearish, with the MACD showing increasing sell volume and the RSI reflecting rising selling pressure. We anticipate a potential breakdown in the coming days if current momentum continues.

USDJPY

The Yen is squeezing within a narrowing range but trending lower. The MACD supports further selling, while the RSI approaches oversold levels, increasing the odds of a bullish reversal. That said, the Yen still appears to respect its overall bullish structure—but it's now testing a critical shift zone. A confirmed breakdown here could lead to deeper selling.

USDCHF

The Franc is in tight consolidation, trading between 0.84086 and 0.83313. Both the MACD and RSI remain neutral, mirroring the indecision in price action. We remain on hold until a clear break of either boundary dictates direction.

USDCAD

The CAD continues to weaken against the dollar, though price action remains consolidated. Despite recent sideways movement, the pair respects a broader bullish structure, suggesting potential for further upside. Both the MACD and RSI remain muted, so we wait for a clear breakout before committing to a directional view.

COT Report Analysis

AUD - WEAK (5/5)

GBP - STRONG (3/5)

CAD - WEAK (5/5)

EUR - STRONG (5/5)

JPY - STRONG (3/5)

CHF - WEAK (5/5)

USD - MIXED

NZD - WEAK (4/5)

GOLD - STRONG (5/5)

SILVER - STRONG (4/5)