Inflation and Growth in Focus as Fed and BoE Face Pressure

The Week Ahead: Week of 12th May 2025 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview

Markets face a packed macro calendar this week, with U.S. inflation, retail sales, and U.K. GDP expected to steer rate expectations across major central banks. Tuesday‘s U.S. CPI print will be the marquee event, with traders eager to confirm whether disinflation is resuming after March’s downside surprise. Core CPI in particular will be watched for signs of sticky services inflation, which could delay any potential Fed pivot.

Retail sales on Thursday will offer a fresh read on consumer demand, just as jobless claims and PPI data test how much slack is emerging in the labor market and upstream pricing.

In the U.K., GDP data will be pivotal for BoE rate guidance. A downside surprise could spark renewed recession fears and weaken sterling, while a solid print would support the case for patience on rate cuts. Meanwhile, Germany‘s CPI will test the ECB's narrative, and Japan’s Q1 GDP will round out the week with clues on the BoJs next policy steps.

Key Events to Watch:

Tuesday, May 13 – 15:30

U.S. Core CPI (MoM) (Apr)

Previous: 0.1% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

March‘s low core CPI was driven by easing used car prices and modest housing cost gains, reinforcing hopes that underlying inflation pressures are fading. If April’s print comes in higher, above 0.3%, it may disrupt the disinflation narrative and raise fears of sticky services inflation. A softer reading around 0.2% or below would likely confirm easing price pressures and revive expectations for a Fed rate cut by September.

Wednesday, May 14 – 09:00

Germany CPI (MoM) (Apr)

Previous: 0.4% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Germany‘s inflation uptick last month reflected higher food and service prices after winter distortions faded. A softer April reading would strengthen the ECB’s case for a June rate cut, especially as growth lags. Conversely, a sticky or rising print might challenge rate cut timing and briefly lift the euro on hawkish repricing.

Thursday, May 15 – 09:00

U.K. GDP (MoM) (Mar)

Previous: 0.5% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

February‘s GDP surge came from a rebound in services and manufacturing, boosted by stronger construction and a mild winter. If March GDP softens below 0.2%, recession fears could return and pressure the pound, while another strong print would justify the BoE’s recent hawkish tone and provide near-term support for GBP.

Thursday, May 15 – 15:30

U.S. Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

Previous: 0.6% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

March‘s core strength surprised markets, driven by broad gains in discretionary and online spending, signaling consumer resilience. If April’s number remains strong, it may challenge soft-landing bets and keep Treasury yields elevated. A miss would suggest spending fatigue is setting in, likely boosting Fed cut hopes and lifting equities.

Thursday, May 15 – 15:30

U.S. Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

Previous: 1.5% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Headline retail sales surged last month as auto sales rebounded and gas station receipts jumped on higher prices. A slower print in April could imply fading momentum and increase bets on mid-year Fed easing, while another strong surprise may raise questions about whether demand remains too hot for comfort.

Thursday, May 15 – 15:30

U.S. PPI (MoM) (Apr)

Previous: -0.4% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Producer prices fell more than expected in March amid declining input costs and transport rates. Another negative reading would affirm a disinflationary supply chain backdrop, bolstering rate-cut bets. A surprise rebound could prompt caution and lift short-end yields if markets sense renewed pricing pressures.

Friday, May 16 – 02:50

Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q1)

Previous: 0.6% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Q4s growth reflected solid private consumption and inventory rebuilding. A strong Q1 print could lift JPY and firm up expectations that the BoJ may gradually tighten policy. A disappointment may revive dovish speculation, particularly as wage growth remains subdued.