DBG Markets: Market Report for Apr 14, 2025

MARKET ANALYSIS

GOLDGOLD prices continue to surge, bolstered by the escalating trade tensions. While the White House announced tariff exclusions on Friday, Trump clarified over the weekend that these will be short-lived—especially for smartphones and computers. This signals that the broader reciprocal tariff measures remain in force, and will resume in full if no progress is made during the 90-day pause. Technically, the MACD is showing increasing selling volume even as prices rise—an early indication of healthy bullish continuation, often seen in strong uptrends. Meanwhile, the RSI remains high but is recovering from near overbought levels, hinting at sustained buying interest. Overall, GOLD is expected to remain in favor as geopolitical uncertainty and trade risks persist.

SILVERSILVER has flipped bullish after breaking above the EMA200. Both the MACD and RSI confirm this shift, showing rising bullish volume and momentum. The correlation between GOLD and SILVER continues to guide sentiment: as long as SILVER stays relatively suppressed while GOLD soars, it‘s a sign GOLD’s rally is considered sustainable. Once SILVER starts gaining rapidly, it often suggests GOLD is overextended. Furthermore, Dollar weakness continues to fuel strength in precious metals overall.

DXYThe Dollar remains under pressure. The MACD reflects upward volume divergence as prices decline, suggesting increasing bearish bias. The RSI is frequently tagging overbought levels despite falling prices, reinforcing that selling momentum is gaining traction. With trade war tensions persisting and inflation risks looming, more Dollar weakness is likely over the medium term. The full impact of these dynamics may become more visible in the coming months.

GBPUSDThe Pound is strengthening, supported by technicals. The MACD and RSI show rising bullish volume and momentum, largely driven by Dollar weakness. While we may see near-term consolidation, the broader momentum favors continued upside. We remain bullish unless a clear structural reversal occurs.

AUDUSDThe Aussie Dollar also reflects continued bullish pressure. The MACD and RSI confirm rising momentum and volume. However, this strength appears more related to Dollar weakness than strong domestic fundamentals. Despite the upside bias, we remain cautious and prefer to trade conservatively until price confirms broader stability.

NZDUSDThe Kiwi follows a similar path to the Aussie, with both the MACD and RSI showing bullish alignment. While short-term pullbacks may occur, the bias remains upward. As with the AUD, this movement is tied to global Dollar sentiment rather than independent strength.

EURUSDThe Euro remains firm, extending gains as confirmed by increasing bullish volume and momentum on both the MACD and RSI. While a retracement could occur to test key support levels, the overall trend remains bullish, and we continue to look for buying opportunities.

USDJPYThe Yen is gaining strength as investors look for safety amid Dollar volatility. The MACD and RSI reflect increased bearish momentum on USD/JPY. However, we remain cautious and prefer to wait for a clearer directional breakout, as safe-haven dynamics can be short-lived or reverse suddenly depending on global developments.

USDCHFThe Franc continues its bearish movement against the Dollar. Both MACD and RSI signal increasing selling momentum, supporting the expectation for continued downside. However, with signs of potential short-term retracement, we maintain a cautious outlook and will look for pullbacks as opportunities to re-enter bearish positions.

USDCADThe CAD is showing increased bearish momentum, with CAD strength dominating as USD weakens. The MACD and RSI show no signs of reversal, favoring a continuation of the trend. As long as the Dollar remains under pressure and trade dynamics worsen, we continue to look for short opportunities in this market.