Understanding Today's News

MARKET ANALYSIS

GOLD

Gold prices dipped after testing resistance, lacking sell-side volume but showing bearish potential with MACD crossing lower and RSI hovering near neutral.

Trump hinted at softening reciprocal tariffs, reducing safe-haven demand.

Further downside is likely if tariff exemptions materialize, challenging the $3,000/oz bullish outlook.

Outlook: Bearish continuation expected.

SILVER

SILVER prices are currently showing increased selling momentum, with the market potentially continuing to sell in the coming days. The RSI remains consolidated, although the swing highs are being called overbought. The MACD is indicating increased selling volume, evidenced by the rising buying histogram despite a slow upward-moving price. We expect the sell continuation to intensify as GOLD prices lose appeal after Trump signals a slowdown in tariffs and a possible easing of trade wars.

DXY

The Dollar grew after concerns eased. This increase followed Trumps comment last night, where he mentioned that he would implement a more targeted tariff plan that would be lighter than previously presumed. However, the fact that tariffs will still be imposed—and the possibility of counter tariffs from other countries—remains, so the outcome depends on how Trump ultimately enacts these measures. Trump still plans to impose new reciprocal tariffs next week, but questions remain about the size of the duties and the targeted countries. In addition, Trump stated on Monday that any country buying oil or gas from Venezuela will incur a 25% tariff on exports to the United States. Although there is currently a pause in concerns, this does not guarantee a lasting recovery of the dollar. On the technical side, we see increased bullish momentum and volume: while the MACD remains consolidated, the RSI shows normalization of the bullish movement. Overall price action has shifted back to bullish, and we expect continued buying in the coming days.

GBPUSD

The Pound is currently experiencing increased selling momentum after yesterday, though overall market consolidation persists as investors assess Trumps latest tariff comments. The MACD has just shown a cross low, and previous buying momentum failed to push prices above the higher boundary. The RSI signals that the swing high is overbought, reflecting increased selling pressure. However, since prices quickly retracted from the low and consolidated, there remains a possibility for a rebound. We will not call a definitive direction until a clearer trend emerges.

AUDUSD

The Aussie dollar remains consolidated despite the strength in the dollar, indicating that other countries are also benefiting as risk levels decline. The MACD remains consolidated and shows reduced volume, consistent with the current price action. However, the RSI signals potential for further downside, as high levels are being labeled overbought. We await a clearer break before adjusting our outlook.

NZDUSD

Similar to the Aussie dollar, the Kiwi has not shown significant movement, so we will maintain our previous assessment and continue to wait for more trading in the coming days.

EURUSD

The Euro is showing a break below its consolidation zone, increasing the likelihood of further declines. The MACD displays signs of potential increased selling volume, and the RSI reflects growing bearish momentum. However, we will hold off on initiating sell positions until we see a cleaner break. Another test of the EMA200 may provide further confirmation of a selloff, though the market could still decide to sell from its current level.

USDJPY

The Yen weakens as the Nikkei gains strength amid easing concerns over Trump‘s upcoming tariffs. As we look for more clues on how Trump might adjust his approach, we observe that the yen is losing strength relative to the dollar, reflected by increased DXY volume. Although we expected a continuation high from yesterday’s reading, the MACD now shows more volume, and the RSI indicates increased bullish momentum without reaching overbought levels. Thus, we expect continued bullish movement in the coming trading hours.

USDCHF

The Franc remains stable. We continue to monitor this market closely for any signs of a breakout. If it manages to break above the upper zone, there is a high chance that bullish momentum will continue and the francs relative weakness will become evident. The EMA200 is acting as support, and the RSI is already showing signs of bullish continuation by signaling oversold conditions. The MACD also shows reduced selling volume as it approaches a bullish crossover.

USDCAD

The CAD shows little movement, with the EMA200 acting as an effective resistance and signs that the bearish trend may continue. Thus, we remain cautious while looking for additional selling opportunities in the coming days.