Ultima Markets | GBPUSD Analysis: The pound fluctuates widely

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the GBPUSD for MAR 25, 2025.

Fundamental Analysis of GBPUSD

GBPUSD Key Takeaways

• UK March PMI data: The initial value of the UK manufacturing PMI in March was 44.6, a new low in 18 months. The initial value of the UK service industry PMI in March was 53.2, a new high in 7 months. The initial value of the UK composite PMI in March was 52.0, a new high in 6 months.

• The UK budget is about to be announced: The UK will announce the budget on Wednesday. If it disappoints the market, the pound will face the risk of falling. The expected spending cuts should be enough to meet the UKs fiscal rules. However, with “extremely limited fiscal room for maneuver”, any mistakes that lead to a negative reaction in UK government bonds or a sharp drop in UK economic growth expectations may hit the pound.

Technical Analysis of GBPUSD Daily and Hourly Charts

GBPUSD Daily Chart Insights

Stochastic oscillator: The indicator sends a short signal in the overbought area, suggesting that short-term bulls may take profits and leave, and bears may have the upper hand.

• Falling signal: After the false breakthrough of GBP/USD formed a topping pattern last Thursday, the exchange rate fell back to the top neckline yesterday. If it falls below the opening price today, the daily level adjustment will come, looking at the upward trend line below.

GBPUSD H1 Chart Analysis

Stochastic oscillator: The indicator sends a long signal in the oversold area, and the fast line and slow line entangle and oscillate upward. It is worth noting that the current exchange rate is diverging from the indicator trend, suggesting that the short-term exchange rate is in adjustment.

• Oscillating range: The volatility of the pound soared after the data was released yesterday. Since the key resistance was not broken above and below, the current exchange rate will be dominated by the idea of oscillation. The trend direction cannot be considered before the exchange rate breaks through the upper resistance of 1.29530 and the lower support price of 1.28940.

Pivot Indicator Insights for GBPUSD

(GBPUSD M30 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets APP)

• According to Pivot Indicator in Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 1.2950,

• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 1.2950, first target 1.2970, second target 1.2990;

• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 1.2950, first target 1.2895, second target 1.2875.

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Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.