DBG Markets: Market Report for Mar 17, 2025

Market Analysis

GOLD - GOLD prices went according to our expectations and peaked at $3,000/oz by the end of last week. We can see that the momentum and strength of the price was carried through up above the levels after prelim consumer confidence showed a massive contraction to 57.9 from the expected 63.1. This shows that consumers are losing confidence in the US economy and is choosing to hold off on purchases, which can indicate a potential fallout of jobs and a slowdown of overall economy. PPI is also falling significantly, showing growth in the supply and the overall slowdown of purchasing. The -0.1% contraction came in from an expected growth in core PPI from 0.3%. CPI also fell to 0.2% which was terrible news for the dollar, explaining the sudden burst in GOLD prices. The rise was also boosted by Trumps sweeping tariffs affecting the markets and increasing the potential for trade wars to increase further. Geopolitical tensions have also been persistent, with the U.S. vowing to keep attacking Yemen's Houthis until they end attacks on shipping, and Israeli military strikes killing at least 15 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip over the past 24 hours. We expect further buying to continue after a potential consolidation or retracement of price, but overall expectations remain bullish with both the MACD and the RSI reflecting this insight. While the MACD does show a potential to have an increase in the selling, the exaggerated levels do explain that the current move is minimal and lacks conviction.

SILVER - SILVER prices are also showing increased consistency in their bullish trend. As expected, SILVER has followed GOLD's upward movement. We anticipate continued bullish momentum in the coming days. However, we remain cautious about how the markets will develop, as there is a chance that consolidation may extend or even lead to a retracement. The MACD is moving sideways, and the RSI is following a similar pattern.

DXY - The Dollar is currently experiencing increased consolidation, and the MACD is failing to show a clear direction. Despite GOLD's surge, this was not solely due to dollar weakness but rather a shift by investors seeking alternative hedges against the dollar. Even though the dollar has remained relatively stable, we have observed other markets being used as a hedge against the risk of a rising dollar. We expect a continued decline but are awaiting Chairman Powells remarks on a potential rate cut this Wednesday. His comments will provide clearer insight into how markets will move in the coming days.

GBPUSD - We will hold off on any calls for this market, as it is still respecting bullish structures. We are waiting for a clearer break before making any moves.

AUDUSD - While the Aussie dollar is strengthening, rising geopolitical tensions and trade wars create the possibility of a sudden reversal. Until we see a more definitive break, we will remain cautious. However, both the MACD and RSI indicate increased momentum and volume growth in buying activity, suggesting further bullish movement in the coming days.

NZDUSD - The Kiwi is currently experiencing stronger bullish movement than the Aussie dollar. This may reflect how China is responding to U.S. economic pressure. One potential factor driving this strength is China's increased trade with other partners, such as New Zealand, which supports the Kiwis growth and strengthens its economy. The MACD and RSI confirm increased momentum and volume in buying, while price action has broken through the upper zone. We expect continued bullish movement in the coming days.

EURUSD - No changes will be made to our Euro outlook. We will withhold further comments until a clearer break in either direction emerges.

USDJPY - Yen prices remain pressured after losing ground to a stagnant dollar. The price briefly moved above the zone but stayed below the previous lower high, reinforcing our selling bias. We are waiting for a clear break downward, but since the price remains above the EMA200, there is potential for further buying. The RSI is showing oversold levels despite a smaller sell-off, while the MACD is beginning to signal increased buying potential. Although the market remains at high price levels, the rising volume of buying suggests possible further gains.

USDCHF - The Franc has the potential to rise further. We observe ongoing tests of the EMA200, although it has yet to break above this level. Overall momentum remains bearish, as the prevailing market structure continues to respect downward trends. The RSI and MACD are currently providing no clear signals. We will wait for further price action to determine the next move.

USDCAD - The CAD is currently experiencing increased selling momentum and is showing potential to strengthen further against the dollar. However, as we previously noted, it remains stuck within a larger consolidation zone. We are waiting for a definitive break before making any calls on this market.