Dollar Pressures by Soft NFP

*Both the NFP and Unemployment rate came soft and exerted downside pressure on the dollar.

*The USD/JPY pair reached a new low as the market stoked demand for the safe-haven currency.

*The crypto market turned bearish as the market was disappointed with Trumps crypto strategic reserve plan.

Market Summary

The U.S. dollar weakened to a four-month low after Friday‘s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report came in below market expectations, while the unemployment rate ticked higher, signaling slower economic growth. The data, coupled with Trump’s aggressive trade policies, has heightened concerns over economic uncertainty, putting further pressure on Wall Street, where risk appetite remains subdued.

Amid risk-off sentiment, the Japanese yen surged, with USD/JPY falling to its lowest level since last October as markets anticipate another rate hike from the Bank of Japan next week. Similarly, gold remains firm above the $2,900 mark, benefiting from investors shift toward safe-haven assets.

In the crypto market, sentiment deteriorated despite President Trump signing an executive order to establish a U.S. crypto strategic reserve stockpile. Market participants were disappointed that the government will not acquire cryptocurrencies from the open market but instead rely solely on forfeited digital assets to build the reserve, leading to broad-based selling pressure across the sector.

Current rate hike bets on 19th March Fed interest rate decision:

Source: CME Fedwatch Tool

0 bps (95%) VS -25 bps (5%)

Market Movements

DOLLAR_INDX, H4

The Dollar Index extended its losses as a series of disappointing U.S. economic reports weighed on sentiment. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) dropped to 151K, missing expectations of 159K, while the unemployment rate edged up to 4.1%, surpassing the forecasted 4.0%. Ongoing uncertainty over President Donald Trumps trade policies added to concerns, with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic cautioning that these policies could cloud the U.S. economic outlook. Investors remained on edge as trade disputes and signs of an economic slowdown loomed.

The Dollar Index is trading lower while currently testing the support level. MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum. However, RSI is at 27, suggesting the index might enter oversold territory.

Resistance level: 105.65, 107.60

Support level: 103.65, 101.70

USD/JPY, D1

The USD/JPY pair remains in a long-term downtrend, reinforcing a bearish bias amid sustained yen strength. The Japanese yen, a traditional safe-haven asset, has seen increased demand as the U.S. dollar remains volatile due to uncertainties surrounding Trumps trade policies. Additionally, market participants are pricing in another potential rate hike from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) next week, further bolstering the yen and keeping downward pressure on the pair.

The USD/JPY has reached a new low after the pair has traded bearishly since January. The RSI remains close to the oversold zone, while the MACD continues to edge lower, suggesting that the bearish momentum has been gaining.

Resistance level:149.50, 151.30

Support level: 146.90, 143.80

BTC, H4

Bitcoin tumbled below $83,000, shedding nearly 4% in a day, despite earlier optimism surrounding a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Hopes of a rally following an executive order on the reserve and a Crypto Summit at the White House faded as the absence of concrete policies left investors uncertain. With bullish sentiment cooling, speculation is mounting that Bitcoin could slip below $80,000 in the near term.

BTC/USD is trading lower while currently testing the support level. MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum. However, RSI is at 30, suggesting the crypto might enter oversold territory.

Resistance level: 84875.00, 89070.00

Support level: 80000.00, 75000.00