DBG Markets: Market Report for Feb 26, 2025

Market Analysis

GOLD - GOLD saw aggressive movement yesterday following a surge in market volatility. However, selling momentum has increased after multiple failed attempts to break the highs. This aligns with our expectations. The MACD is showing growing bearish volume, and the RSI indicates increased bearish pressure. We now anticipate further selling.

SILVER - SILVER is also experiencing increased selling, following GOLDs pullback from its record high. This aligns with our expectations, as investors may look to buy at a premium later. The MACD is reflecting higher selling volume, and the RSI confirms growing bearish momentum. The overall market structure has weakened as prices broke below key support.

DXY - The Dollar remains in consolidation with a bias toward further downside. Fundamentals still favor the dollar, but traders are awaiting inflation data to gauge the FEDs next moves. Another key factor is whether Trump will enact tariffs in March. The MACD and RSI both indicate continued selling momentum. While fundamentals suggest potential buying, we expect more selling in the near term.

GBPUSD - The Pound remains in consolidation despite the Dollar Indexs weakness. There are no changes from our previous outlook. The MACD shows increasing buying pressure, but the RSI is signaling overbought levels, suggesting potential downside. We maintain a bearish outlook.

AUDUSD - The Australian Dollar is seeing increased selling pressure. The RSI has reached overbought levels, indicating the potential for a continuation lower. The MACD has yet to confirm this move, but price action has shifted downward and is trading below the EMA200. This aligns with our expectations for a stronger dollar. We await further confirmation but already see a clear bearish shift.

NZDUSD - The Kiwi remains supported by the EMA200 and has yet to test the previous higher swing low. We continue to look for bullish setups. The MACD, which previously showed selling pressure, has now crossed back up. However, the RSI has consistently signaled overbought conditions. This suggests the potential for further downside in upcoming sessions.

EURUSD - The Euro is showing increased buying momentum, but the RSI is again reaching overbought levels in the same zone. This suggests a possible turnaround. Consolidation may continue until we see a clearer price action signal. Our outlook remains unchanged—we expect the Euro to underperform compared to the dollar.

USDJPY - The Yen continues to weaken but still has downside potential. The MACD and RSI confirm this. Some analysts suggest the FED may delay rate cuts until late 2025, but the possibility of no rate cuts at all remains. The fact that the FED has pushed expectations this far out suggests concerns over inflation. While some remain optimistic about future rate cuts, we remain flexible in our view, acknowledging the possibility of continued rate hikes to combat inflationary pressures. If Russia moves forward with its proposed collaboration with the US, Trumps economic policies could accelerate. We will monitor developments closely.

USDCHF - The Franc is seeing increased selling due to dollar weakness. Surprisingly, it has outperformed other currencies. The MACD and RSI both indicate growing selling pressure. We expect further downside in the coming days.

USDCAD - The CAD strengthened following Trumps tariff discussions for March. Market participants have adjusted their positions, increasing the likelihood of continued buying. We remain bullish, with the MACD and RSI both supporting further upside momentum.