Gold Strong Amid Uncertainty

● Safe-haven gold remains solid at its all-time high level amid heightened market uncertainty.

● President Trump's comment on the planned tariff on Canada and Mexico fueled the dollar.

● BTC and ETH are facing significant selling pressure after ByBIT was hacked and the U.S. State government turned down a BTC reserve asset bill.

Market Summary

As broader financial markets, including forex and equities, remained subdued, safe-haven assets emerged as the preferred choice for investors. Gold prices surged to fresh all-time highs in the previous session, reflecting growing risk aversion amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties.

Meanwhile, crude oil prices found strong support above the $70 per barrel mark, buoyed by fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran and Iraqs commitment to cutting oil supply—both of which reinforced supply-side concerns and provided a bullish catalyst for the commodity.

In the forex market, the U.S. dollar staged a technical rebound, with the Dollar Index (DXY) gaining over 0.5% from its recent lows. The rebound came after Trump reaffirmed that tariffs on Mexico and Canada remain on schedule, offering the greenback some relief. However, the Japanese yen remained firm as Japan‘s long-term bond yields continued to climb, signaling growing hawkish expectations for the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) policy outlook. Traders are now eyeing Wednesday‘s BoJ Core CPI reading for further clues on the central bank’s next move.

The crypto market faced a sharp downturn, with Bitcoin (BTC) dropping below $92,000 and Ethereum (ETH) plunging nearly 10% in the last session. Risk sentiment deteriorated further after Bybit, the worlds second-largest crypto exchange, was hacked, leading to a $1.5 billion asset loss. Additionally, multiple U.S. state governments moved to block a bill advocating Bitcoin as a reserve asset, exacerbating risk-off sentiment and triggering a widespread crypto sell-off.

Current rate hike bets on 19th March Fed interest rate decision:

Source: CME Fedwatch Tool

0 bps (98%) VS -25 bps (2%)

Market Movements

DOLLAR_INDX, H4

The U.S. dollar remained flat as traders adopted a cautious stance ahead of key economic data. The PCE Price Index, a critical inflation metric closely watched by the Fed, could provide additional clarity on monetary policy direction. Until then, the dollar is expected to trade in a narrow range as investors await fresh signals on inflation and interest rate expectations.

The Dollar Index is trading flat while currently testing the support level. MACD has illustrated increasing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 52, suggesting the index might extend its gains since the RSI stays above the midline.

Resistance level: 107.55, 108.40

Support level: 106.55, 105.65

XAU/USD, H4

Gold prices remained supported by safe-haven demand as risk sentiment deteriorated. Concerns over trade tariffs under former President Donald Trump have prompted cautious trading, with Trump confirming that 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada will take effect next week as planned. On the other hand, investors are also eyeing the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for January, a key inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve, which could drive further movement in gold.

Gold prices are trading higher while currently testing the resistance level. However, MACD hs illustrated diminishing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 55, suggesting the commodity might experience technical correction since the RSI retreated from overbought territory.

Resistance level: 2955.00, 2970.00

Support level: 2935.00, 2920.00

Nasdaq (US100)，H4

Nasdaq extended its decline as the AI sector faced renewed pressure. Nvidia dropped another 3% ahead of its earnings report, with investors questioning whether the AI-driven rally can maintain its momentum, particularly after the launch of Chinas DeepSeek AI. Broader tech stocks also struggled as skepticism grew over the sustainability of future AI infrastructure investments, weighing on overall sentiment.

Nasdaq is trading lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level. MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 44, suggesting the index might extend its losses since the RSI stays below the midline.

Resistance level: 21615.00, 22240.00

Support level: 21110.00, 20605.00