DBG Markets: Market Report for Feb 25, 2025

Market Overview

US-Russia Developments and Market Implications

We can see some interesting developments between Russia and the US, with Putin showing more support for Trump. Some geopolitical news did give a modest bump with a report from Axios that a US-Ukraine minerals deal was near completion. Treasury Secretary Bessent said they were “on the 1-yard line” on the Ukraine mineral deal. Later, the focus shifted to ending the Ukraine-Russian war, with Trump suggesting that a resolution could happen within weeks.

Shortly thereafter, Russia's Putin weighed in by saying that the US-Ukraine rare earth metals deal was “none of his business.” He then expressed a willingness to cooperate with the US on rare earth metals and aluminum, offering joint projects to both public and private American entities.

Regarding Ukraine, Putin acknowledged Trump's efforts to improve the political situation and create conditions for Ukraine‘s survival, emphasizing that Trump's approach aligns more with Ukraine’s interests than Russias. However, he described Trump's stance as rational rather than emotional. Putin also stated he has no objections to European participation in Ukraine negotiations but criticized Europe for refusing contact with Russia.

GOLD - GOLD has found increased strength, trading at historic highs. Overall price action still sticks to increased buying momentum in the coming days. However, the MACD is about to cross under, showing potential for markets to retract from the historic high briefly before continuing the rise to make a new record high.

SILVER - SILVER prices remain low despite GOLD nearing historic highs. GOLD prices are yet to find the appropriate momentum to continue rising. The MACD is about to cross up again, but the RSI is signaling an overbought level. We expect the market to continue downward until clearer signals emerge.

DXY - The Dollar rose yesterday and kept its consolidation between 106.848 and 106.400. Overall price action still maintains selling momentum. The MACD is about to cross under again, and the RSI is signaling overbought levels, though recent movement suggests normalization. We will wait to see how markets react to the EMA200 and the previous lower swing high.

This sudden rise came after Trump commented on his tariff plans for Mexico and Canada. Trump stated that tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports are “on time and on schedule,” despite efforts by those countries to beef up border security and halt fentanyl flows ahead of the March 4 deadline. This pushed the Dollar up and limited GOLDs momentum for new record highs as traders now see an increased chance of the FED delaying rate cuts if tariffs are implemented.

GBPUSD - The Pound is currently at 1.26163, showing potential for a continued decline. The RSI signals exaggerated selling momentum despite no significant rise, and the MACD reflects increasing selling volume, though a temporary upward cross is possible before another drop.

AUDUSD - The Aussie dollar is trending lower due to Dollar strength. The 0.63407 level and the EMA200 are currently holding prices up, but both the MACD and RSI show increased selling momentum. A break under this level could lead to further declines.

NZDUSD - The Kiwi remains supported by the market structure and the EMA200, though the RSI and MACD suggest increased selling momentum. We anticipate further downside, especially if US Dollar bullish momentum grows.

EURUSD - While a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia benefits the GBP and Euro, neither currency is expected to outperform the Dollar. Current prices retreated from highs, failing to break above key levels. The MACD is near a bullish cross, signaling a potential short-term rise, though we remain cautious without clearer market confirmation.

USDJPY - The Yen is experiencing increased selling momentum. Although markets failed to push lower yesterday, momentum is picking up again for further downside. The MACD has yet to cross under, but volume remains muted, and the RSI suggests continued bearishness in the coming days. Consolidation remains a possibility.

USDCHF - The Franc continues consolidating between 0.90054 and 0.89431. The MACD and RSI do not indicate significant price changes but lean slightly toward selling. Fundamentals currently don't align, so waiting for clearer market signals is advisable.

USDCAD - The CAD is weakening, testing the previous lower swing high. A break above this level could signal a bullish shift, particularly following Trumps tariff comments. The MACD shows increasing buying volume, and the RSI suggests stronger bullish momentum, making bullish opportunities worth watching.