Quick Hits from Today's Markets

MARKET ANALYSIS

GOLD

GOLD prices unexpectedly found a low, defying prior expectations. Trump‘s tariff policies remain increasingly unpredictable due to ongoing delays and exemptions, creating further geopolitical and economic uncertainties. This has strengthened gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. However, given the unclear direction stemming from these developments, we will primarily rely on technical readings in the chart this week until a more definitive trend emerges.

Currently, gold prices remain well-supported and maintain an overall bullish structure. However, both the MACD and RSI have long since shifted momentum toward the bearish side. While the broader bias remains bullish, we await further market movement in the coming days for confirmation of trend continuation or a possible deeper pullback.

SILVER

After gold prices reached overvalued levels, SILVER has gained momentum in the bullish trend. It has successfully broken above a key resistance level and is currently testing lower levels before a potential continuation to the upside. The EMA200 is providing solid support, alongside the previous higher swing low. At the moment, the MACD is trending downward, and the RSI is similarly reflecting a short-term pullback. However, given that both indicators have previously fluctuated between overbought and oversold levels, there remains a possibility of further consolidation before a decisive move.

DXY

The dollar remains under pressure, continuing its downward trajectory despite its prior decline. This may be attributed to profit-taking in anticipation of renewed strength in the coming days. As a result, we maintain a bearish stance in the short term, while acknowledging the possibility of a medium-term recovery. The MACD remains muted in its buying signals, and the RSI appears to be reaching exaggerated levels despite the ongoing selling momentum. Additionally, the EMA200 is trending lower, with the critical 106.848 level already broken. As such, overall market momentum continues to favor the bearish side.

GBPUSD

The Pound has gained significant bullish momentum following USD weakness. Structural resistance has been broken, signaling a shift in overall momentum toward buying. The MACD reflects strong volume despite the slow movement, while the RSI is flagging overbought conditions, highlighting the relative weakness of selling pressure. Given these technical readings, we maintain a bullish bias unless definitive signs of a reversal emerge.

AUDUSD

The Aussie dollar is seeing continued bullish movement following the decline in the USD. While the MACD is currently crossed lower, the volume is minimal, and the RSI remains strong, reflecting the robust bullish momentum in the market. We remain bullish on the AUD as long as technical conditions hold.

NZDUSD

The Kiwi has regained bullish momentum after last weeks shift in market structure, successfully holding above the lower boundary of the previous consolidation zone. Both the RSI and MACD confirm the bullish trend, with price action aligning accordingly. Given these factors, we maintain a bullish bias.

EURUSD

The Euro is seeing increased bullish momentum as the market tests the upper boundary of the previous consolidation zone. However, the MACD is oscillating between buy and sell signals, while the RSI lacks a clear directional bias, reinforcing the markets current consolidated state. Despite this, price action remains structurally bullish following its breakout from consolidation. As long as the Euro sustains this breakout, we maintain a bullish outlook.

USDJPY

The Yen has regained strength following last weeks USD weakness, driven by market expectations of a potential BOJ rate hike as early as May. Price action has broken below a previous swing low, shifting overall momentum back to the downside. While both the MACD and RSI remain in a consolidated state with no clear direction, the broader bias now leans bearish. We will monitor for further confirmation before anticipating any major move.

USDCHF

The Franc has also recovered strength over the past few trading sessions. However, the MACD has yet to provide a definitive directional signal, while the RSI is reflecting increased selling momentum after previously reaching overbought conditions. With overall momentum shifting back to selling since last week, we maintain a bearish outlook, further emphasizing the dollars current underperformance against major currencies.

USDCAD

The CAD remains relatively weak, showing limited downside progress despite USD softness. The 1.41774 support level is currently holding, presenting the possibility of a bounce if this level is respected. However, given the prevailing bearish momentum, we maintain a downside bias. That said, both the MACD and RSI remain in a consolidated state, offering no strong conviction in either direction. We will continue to monitor price action for further clues on a potential breakout.