【MACRO Insight】 The new US tariff measures have impacted the global market - the global market is wa

President Donald Trump signed a measure on Thursday directing the U.S. trade representative and commerce secretary to propose new tariffs on countries to rebalance trade relations. The comprehensive process could take weeks or months to complete. Howard Lutnick, Trump's nominee to head the Commerce Department, said all studies should be completed by April 1 and Trump could take action immediately after that.

According to a memorandum distributed by the White House, the new import taxes will be tailored for each country and are intended to offset the taxes these countries impose on American goods, as well as non-tariff barriers such as unfair subsidies, regulations, value-added taxes, exchange rates and lax intellectual property protection.

Trump said the reciprocal tariffs were to address the U.S. trade deficit and unfair treatment of its exports around the world. He has already imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and plans to impose a 25% tariff on all U.S. imported steel and aluminum next month. He also mentioned the possibility of higher import taxes on cars, semiconductors and medicines, especially targeting the European Union, Japan and South Korea.

But the policy has injected uncertainty into the global economy, with businesses and consumers waiting to see what happens. Reciprocal tariffs are expected to hit less developed economies with higher average tariffs on U.S. products hard, which is different from the universal tax on all imports proposed by Trump during his 2024 presidential campaign, but he did not rule out the possibility of moving to a global unified tariff in the future.

The survey showed that investors are bracing for further weakness in the U.S. bond market as they bet that Trump's tariff threats are becoming a reality. According to the median forecast of 153 respondents, ongoing trade concerns could push the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield to 4.80% in the next six months, putting it at the top of the range of fluctuations in the past few years. During this period, more than half of the participants expected the United States to impose tariffs on at least some economies, and more than a third of the respondents also expected the United States to implement general tariffs.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell to about 4.53% on Thursday. Whatever form the trade war takes, most investors agree it is likely to be an unwelcome development for the $29 trillion Treasury market. Historically, Treasuries have been a popular haven for investors in turbulent times because they are backed by the U.S. government. But tariffs have heightened concerns about persistently high U.S. inflation, prompting bets that the Federal Reserve wont cut rates anytime soon, keeping yields elevated and weighing on bond prices.

immediately implement reciprocal tariffs could be seen as an opportunity for negotiation. He wants to discuss with other countries how current policies have created an unbalanced trade environment, and he is more than happy to reduce tariffs if countries want to lower them or remove other trade barriers. But the sheer breadth of the tariff plan is breathtaking, creating a huge logistical effort for the Commerce Department and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. Each country has its own tariff schedule, which contains thousands of tariff codes.

A reciprocal tariff system would mark a dramatic change in the way the United States approaches trade and would undermine one of the founding principles of the global trading system the United States established after World War II. The United States has long advocated so-called "most favored nation" treatment of tariffs, but Trump's policies would change that.

Meanwhile, gold has approached $3,000 an ounce, near an all-time high, despite strong U.S. stocks. Survey respondents have their preferred safe havens, but their overall strategy for dealing with tariff-driven volatility is to bet on increased market volatility over the next six months. That strategy is particularly evident in the $300 billion foreign exchange options market, where trading has surged to multi-year highs as investors seek protection.

Since the reciprocal tariff policy is not imposed immediately, the US dollar has been hit and US stocks are close to all-time highs. Investors and markets have begun to speculate whether Trump's remarks are a negotiating tactic rather than a final action. But in any case, Trump's reciprocal tariff policy has brought significant uncertainty to the global economy and financial markets. Investors and market participants are closely watching the next moves of the US government and how countries respond to these potential tariff changes. In the coming months, the market may continue to experience volatility as research is completed and policies are gradually implemented.