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MARKET OVERVIEW

The U.S. imposed sweeping 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports on February 4, 2025, with President Trump making it clear hes in no rush to negotiate with China. China has retaliated by rolling out its own tariffs—ranging from 10% to 15%—on key U.S. exports, including coal, LNG, and agricultural equipment. These tariffs will take effect on February 10. In a broader response, China has also tightened export controls on critical minerals, added two major U.S. firms to its Unreliable Entity List, and launched an antitrust investigation into Google. Moreover, China has filed a formal complaint against the U.S. at the WTO, marking its intent to fight back within international legal frameworks.

China's strategy here seems deliberate and controlled, aimed at managing economic fallout without escalating tensions unnecessarily. Its a balancing act—strong enough to show resolve but measured enough to leave room for future talks.

On the Canada and Mexico front, the U.S. has delayed tariffs for 30 days, providing these nations with a crucial window to address border-related concerns. This delay offers a glimmer of hope for avoiding further trade disruptions.

Domestically, the U.S. economy is in a precarious position. Volatility has surged, fueled by the Fed‘s cautious approach to rate changes despite growing inflationary pressure from Trump’s tariffs. Markets are increasingly betting on potential rate cuts later in the year, which adds to the uncertainty.

MARKET ANALYSIS

GOLD

GOLD prices continue their meteoric rise, hitting new all-time highs. Safe-haven demand is surging as investors look for stability amidst the dollar‘s weakness and the broader economic uncertainty. The technicals paint a strong bullish picture, with the MACD and RSI confirming solid momentum and the EMA200 providing reliable support. While some analysts see gold reaching $3,000/oz by March, the market’s extended run above the EMA200 hints at a possible pullback before any further rally.

SILVER

SILVER is climbing in gold‘s shadow, with steady gains that are likely to continue. However, policymakers may aim to keep silver’s rise in check to avoid stoking inflation. The MACD and RSI both support continued bullish momentum for the metal.

DXY

The dollar is struggling to recover, as traders remain cautious about its prospects. The lack of clarity from the Fed regarding future rate cuts and ongoing trade tensions are key factors driving this hesitation. Until the Fed provides clearer guidance, the dollar is likely to remain under pressure.

GBPUSD

The Pound is benefiting from dollar weakness but remains range-bound for now. Resistance at 1.24754 is a key level to watch, as a breakout could shift sentiment. The MACD and RSI show improving buying interest, though the EMA200s sideways trend suggests consolidation could continue for a while.

AUDUSD

The Australian dollar is making moves, testing the upper limits of its recent range. Optimism from the tariff delay is driving gains, but expectations for rate cuts from the RBA could temper this momentum. Technically, the MACD and RSI indicate strong buying pressure, but traders should remain cautious of potential consolidation.

NZDUSD

The New Zealand dollar is showing similar patterns to the Aussie, with price testing a key resistance zone. While the Kiwi has displayed resilience, the RBNZs dovish outlook may weigh on its upward momentum. The MACD and RSI are bullish, but until a breakout occurs, the broader trend remains bearish.

EURUSD

The Euro is slowly recovering but remains far from its previous highs. While there‘s some bullish momentum building, the MACD is showing early signs of slowing, suggesting caution. Fundamentally, any potential for improved U.S.-EU trade relations could influence the Euro’s trajectory, but the immediate outlook is still skewed toward selling.

USDJPY

The Yen is gaining strength as the dollar falters, pushing this pair lower. Speculation about further BOJ rate hikes is also supporting the yen. Technical indicators remain bearish, with the EMA200 acting as resistance. Unless we see a significant shift in fundamentals, this pair is likely to stay under pressure.

USDCHF

The Franc hasnt made any major moves recently, but the technicals indicate continued bearish momentum. The MACD and RSI both point to further selling in the near term.

USDCAD

The Canadian dollar is hanging on at key support levels after breaking below a prior swing low. While the tariff delay provides some breathing room for recovery, broader market sentiment will depend heavily on Fed rate decisions and global trade developments. The MACD suggests a temporary pause before the bearish trend resumes, with support at current levels likely to lead to some consolidation first.