Understanding Today's News

Market Overview

As we previously mentioned in the analysis yesterday, it is wise not to chase after the trend, even if you are sure about how the market will react to the stronger dollar.

Overall, the dollar found weakness as it loosened up after Trumps decision on Monday. U.S. President Donald Trump suspended tariffs on Mexico and Canada on Monday, agreeing to a 30-day pause in return for concessions on border and crime enforcement with the two countries, while levies on Chinese goods are due to start later in the day. The market perceives Trump's tariff policies as inflationary.

Market Analysis

GOLD - GOLD prices maintain their high as concerns over tariffs linger among traders. Prices also reached new historic highs, and we expect further buying to continue. However, the strength in the dollar is also anticipated to persist. "In the current highly dynamic environment, where market volatility and policy flip-flops are likely to dominate, gold prices may continue to stay supported," IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong said. With Trumps unpredictable approach, expect a highly volatile market ahead. The MACD and the RSI show an increase in market volume and volatility, indicating that prices are likely to continue higher.

SILVER - SILVER prices have halted their advancement, as expected, correlating with GOLDs slowdown. This is because they will likely hold off on increasing SILVER prices until GOLD becomes overpriced, making SILVER the next best asset. Therefore, we remain bullish on this price as overall price action suggests the same bias. The MACD and the RSI also reflect this increase in market volume and momentum.

DXY - Dollar prices have now filled the gap and are expected to continue higher in the coming days. The EMA200 still supports the price, alongside the previous swing low. However, the gap makes it challenging to interpret what the RSI and the MACD are indicating. Well wait for more price movement to get a clearer picture of how the markets will move from here.

GBPUSD - Pound prices have filled the gap as expected. However, they are still a few pips away from signaling a shift back to buying. For now, our outlook remains bearish. The MACD is showing buying momentum, and the RSI is also reflecting an increase in this bullish movement. Still, we anticipate prices will continue to sell off in the coming days, with a potential consolidation for the rest of today.

AUDUSD - AUDUSD prices bounced off the EMA200 and are expected to continue falling. The overall price action is bearish, though there may be some consolidation as prices have risen above the previous consolidation zone's lower boundary. We're still watching for a potential selling opportunity, but the MACD and RSI indicate increasing buying momentum.

NZDUSD - Kiwi prices are expected to continue dropping, adhering to the lower boundary of previous consolidation. While the MACD shows increased buying, the RSI indicates a bearish bias as selling pressure normalizes. Weakness in the market persists as the Trump administration has yet to engage with China about the new 10% tariffs. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's anticipated rate cuts, with a potential 50 bps reduction to 3.75%, add pressure on the currency, forecasting a bottom policy rate of 3% within the next year.

EURUSD - The Euro has filled the gap and is now generally expected to go lower. However, the RSI shows an increase in buying momentum alongside the MACD. Despite this, we remain bearish as overall prices suggest a continuation of the sell-off. There are slight chances for prices to remain consolidated until the Euro finds a clearer direction in the coming days.

USDJPY - USDJPY - The Yen is under pressure but relatively stable as markets anticipate a BOJ rate hike. Currently consolidating, with the MACD and RSI showing no strong signals. Investors are watching Wednesday's wage figures, which may affect the BOJ's monetary policy, especially after the rate hike in January and hints at further increases if forecasts align.

USDCHF - The Franc has filled the gap and might consolidate before continuing its upward run. Prices are likely to continue rising as overall price momentum remains bullish. The MACD shows a sell signal, while the RSI indicates increasing buying momentum. We remain bullish since even the EMA200 continues to support prices.

USDCAD - USDCAD - The CAD showed some recovery due to delayed tariffs, but it's expected to weaken against the dollar as the market trends upward. Analysts predict brief dips, with TD forecasting a rise to C$1.50 by the end of March, influenced by Canada's weak macro situation and trade uncertainties. The RSI indicates increasing buying momentum, while the MACD shows rising selling volume. Overall, the market remains bullish despite ongoing uncertainty.