Quick Hits from Today's Markets

Reminder

The FED's rate decision has introduced significant market volatility. Expect erratic price action that could trigger stop-losses in both directions. Trade cautiously—risk only what you can afford to lose. Sometimes, staying out of the market until a clear trend emerges is the best strategy.

Market Analysis

GOLD – Consolidation continues after the FED held rates. Price remains range-bound with MACD crossing lower and RSI fluctuating at extremes, indicating a potential high in the consolidation zone. Bullish structures remain intact, suggesting long-term strength. If Dollar strength persists, Gold could see further upside.

SILVER – Silver remains bullish despite a stronger Dollar, benefiting from Gold's high-risk perception. MACD shows rising bullish volume, and RSI remains stable. Price is holding above EMA200, indicating further upside potential.

DXY (US Dollar Index) – The Dollar's unpredictability persists, creating uncertainty for analysts. MACD shows increasing selling momentum, while RSI nears oversold levels, suggesting potential support. If EMA200 and previous swing high are broken, expect renewed Dollar strength. However, overall price action still leans bearish.

GBP/USD – The Pound is consolidating with little movement, remaining below 1.24754 and 1.24268.

AUD/USD – Bearish momentum is increasing, but the price is still holding within the lower boundary of its consolidation zone. MACD shows weak buying, and RSI suggests normalization. With the price rejected by EMA200 and resistance, a bearish continuation is likely. Markets expect a 0.25% RBA rate cut on Feb. 18.

NZD/USD – The Kiwi is turning bearish after breaking its previous swing low. RSI shows overbought conditions, while MACD lacks buying volume. Markets expect the RBNZ to cut rates by 50bps on Feb. 19, with further easing toward 3.0% by year-end.

EUR/USD – The Euro rebounded after yesterday's drop but remains weak. MACD and RSI indicate a lack of conviction in the recovery, suggesting further downside. If the price falls below EMA200 and the previous swing low, a continuation lower is expected.

USD/JPY – The Yen is strengthening after the FEDs rate decision, acting as a hedge against Dollar risks. MACD and RSI show increased momentum, reinforcing a bearish structure. With EMA200 respected and the previous swing high untouched, we remain bearish.

USD/CHF – The Franc is consolidating below 0.90743, testing resistance. RSI shows exaggerated selling signals, possibly indicating exhaustion. A break above resistance could confirm a bullish continuation.

USD/CAD – CAD remains above 1.44671, but consolidation persists. MACD shows weak momentum, while RSI indicates slowing selling pressure. The BoC's recent rate cut and concerns over U.S. tariffs are weighing on the CAD. Markets expect another rate cut in March, with further easing by 40bps through 2025.

Commitment of Traders (COT) Report

🔴 AUD - WEAK (4/5)

🔴 GBP - WEAK (5/5)

🔴 CAD - WEAK (4/5)

🔴 EUR - WEAK (5/5)

🔴 JPY - WEAK (3/5)

🔴 CHF - WEAK (5/5)

🟢 USD - STRONG (4/5)

🔴 NZD - WEAK (4/5)

🟢 GOLD - STRONG (5/5)

🟢 SILVER - STRONG (5/5)