DBG Markets: Market Report for Jan 28, 2025

GOLD

Gold prices are currently held up by the previous swing low and the EMA 200. While normalization of the drop is evident in the RSI, and the MACD shows growing volume with increasing bearish momentum, overall price action maintains a bullish bias as prices quickly returned above the zone after breaching the low. With this, we remain cautious and expect the market to consolidate briefly ahead of the FOMC decisions.

SILVER

Silver prices are currently consolidating between 30.6675 and 29.9000. Both the RSI and the MACD indicate increasing selling momentum in anticipation of a stronger Dollar and the resolution of geopolitical tensions. However, the buying of Gold could pull Silver prices upward. We are waiting for more market cues to determine the direction, though our bias remains bullish. The EMA 200 is moving sideways, reflecting the consolidated nature of the market, with prices trading between the EMA levels.

DOLLAR

The Dollar gapped higher, reflecting an overall appreciation in demand. The MACD shows increasing volume, though prices are rising unexpectedly fast. The RSI is signaling overbought conditions, suggesting a possible price reversal for normalization. Despite this, overall price action still respects bearish structures, and the gap suggests a likely return to fill the space.

POUND

The Pound is currently consolidating, with the MACD indicating increased selling volume and momentum. The RSI calls the current low oversold, reflecting the markets consolidated state. While fundamental expectations lean toward a weaker Eurozone and UK, the current price action suggests potential bullish demand. This is evident in the exaggerated selling volume on the MACD, despite the small price movements, signaling little selling interest at this time.

The unpredictability of Trump‘s rate cut demands is causing uncertainty. Markets initially expected the FED to hold off on rate cuts to observe Trump’s economic impact, but his push for immediate cuts has raised questions. Will the FED use its tools unconventionally, or will it stick to a conservative approach？

AUSSIE DOLLAR

The Australian Dollar slipped and weakened after Trump‘s announcement of tariff plans. He proposed imposing tariffs on imported chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and copper, which are significant contributors to Australia’s economy.

Both the MACD and RSI indicate healthy growth in bearish momentum and volume, with prices now back within the upper boundary of the consolidation zone. This shift signals a return to bearish momentum, which the EMA 200 also acknowledges. We anticipate further selling in this market.

KIWI DOLLAR

The Kiwi is currently testing the upper boundary of the previous consolidation zone. A successful breach below this zone would shift overall market momentum to bearish. The EMA 200 is supporting the market but could soon reflect a bearish move. The MACD and RSI indicate increasing momentum and volume for selling. We expect the market to continue its bearish trend in the coming days.

EURO

The Euro is currently consolidating, with increasing selling momentum after failing to break above the swing high. There are a few pips left to cover before confirming a broader momentum shift, as the EMA 200 still suggests bullish continuation. However, both the RSI and MACD indicate rising bearish momentum and volume. Although the RSI shows oversold conditions, it is recovering quickly to reflect the bearish price movement.

YEN

The Yen gained strength following the BOJ‘s previous hawkish outlook. Analysts expect bullish price movement to persist due to the Yen’s hawkish stance. However, the RSI indicates overbought conditions, suggesting a potential retracement soon, while the MACD‘s sudden curve makes it unreliable at this point. This movement appears fundamentally driven, as markets reacted to Trump’s recent tariff announcements.

Overall price action remains bearish, as confirmed by the EMA 200, which reflects the markets bearish momentum.

FRANC

The Franc fell during yesterdays session due to Dollar weakness but rebounded after renewed tariff threats from Trump. The RSI indicates overbought conditions, suggesting a near-term retracement. Meanwhile, the MACD shows aggressive growth in buying volume, though its curve makes it less reliable.

Overall price action remains bearish, with prices respecting bearish structures. The EMA 200 continues to reflect the markets bearish trend, acting as an effective resistance level.

CAD

The Canadian Dollar remains consolidated as markets await Trumps decision on tariffs, expected by February 1. If implemented, tariffs could significantly strengthen the USD while weakening the CAD.

The MACD and RSI indicate ongoing consolidation without a clear directional bias. We remain neutral but anticipate further buying momentum if tariffs are imposed. Rate cut decisions later this week could also shift market dynamics.