What's Moving Markets Today

Market Overview

This week is packed with key economic data releases, including the U.S. PPI (Tuesday), CPI (Wednesday), and Retail Sales (Thursday). The UK will report its CPI (Wednesday), GDP (Thursday), and Retail Sales (Friday), while Australia releases its jobs report on Thursday.

Markets are on edge, not just due to these critical updates but also in anticipation of potential policy shifts under "Trump 2.0." His expected governance changes during the first 100 days could disrupt markets in the short term but also open up new opportunities as sectors realign to his policies.

Market Analysis

GOLD - Gold prices initially dipped following stronger-than-expected economic data on Friday but quickly rebounded as investors sought safety in gold amid market uncertainties.

Despite pressure from a strong dollar and rising Treasury yields, gold remains attractive as a hedge against inflation, fiscal debt concerns, and potential trade disruptions. Chinese traders' increased hoarding of physical metals, driven by yuan depreciation fears, adds further support.

Technical indicators show bullish momentum: the MACD suggests growing upside potential, while the RSI points to reduced bearish volume. A breakout above 2689.197 could push prices toward 2710.194, reinforcing the bullish outlook.

SILVER - SILVER prices managed to break above the upper boundary of the consolidation zone but were resisted at 30.6675. A few more days may be needed for sufficient buying momentum to push through this level and continue the upward trend. The MACD shows lighter prints in recent price action, suggesting the possibility of a deeper retracement. However, the RSI indicates exaggerated selling levels despite minor price declines, hinting at greater upward potential. The market remains bullish, with price action respecting its bullish structure

DXY - The Dollar remains bullish after breaking the previous swing high following last weeks strong economic data. The MACD points upward with increasing volume, while the RSI holds steady despite the stronger price rally, signaling continued bullish momentum. We maintain a bullish outlook for this market as the structure supports further gains.

GBPUSD - The Pound continues its decline, with increased bearish momentum evident as prices failed to break above 1.23000. The MACD reflects rising selling volume, while the RSI holds steady, supporting the ongoing bearish trend. We expect the selling pressure to persist in this market.

AUDUSD - The Aussie Dollar is positioned for further downside as prices hover near the lower boundary of the consolidation zone. The MACD signals increased potential for continued selling, while the RSI remains stable despite significant price drops, reflecting strong selling pressure. Overall, the bearish outlook remains intact.

NZDUSD - The Kiwi Dollar shows stronger bearish indications than the Aussie, as prices stay below the lower boundary. The MACD reveals heightened selling pressure, while the RSI maintains normal levels, reinforcing the expectation of continued declines.

EURUSD - The Euro briefly attempted a recovery after wicking the previous swing low but is likely to resume its downward trajectory. The MACD reflects growing selling pressure, and the RSIs stability signals increased volume and momentum for the bearish trend. Price action supports further declines as the structure remains bearish.

USDJPY - The Yen is strengthening against the Dollar ahead of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy announcement, with markets expecting a hawkish outlook. However, evolving U.S. dynamics under Trump add uncertainty, keeping the stance neutral.

USD/JPY failed to surpass the previous swing high and retreated to 157.720, with potential for further declines. The MACD shows increased selling momentum, while the RSI remains stable, indicating strong seller dominance. Despite this, the overall bullish bias holds unless the swing low is breached.

USDCHF - The Franc shows increased weakness against the Dollar, mirroring broader market trends. The MACD indicates growing buying momentum, while the RSI reflects exaggerated selling levels, reinforcing bullish sentiment. Price action supports further gains, and we remain bullish for this market.

USDCAD - The CAD fell short of breaking above 1.44440, with the RSI signaling normal movement during the recent rise and the MACD showing no significant developments. We expect the market to remain within the consolidation zone until a decisive break occurs.

The CAD's strength stems from Friday‘s better-than-expected jobs data. However, the Dollar’s outperformance and current market dynamics overshadowed these gains. Investors now estimate a roughly 60% chance of a Bank of Canada rate cut on January 29, down from 71% before the data. The expected rate cut for the year has also been revised to 46 basis points, down from 61.