Financial Stories of the Day

Reminder

As markets resume, trading volume is expected to normalize gradually, with activity likely picking up by mid-January around President Donald Trump's inauguration. In the absence of major surprises or significant data deviations, cautious trading is expected. However, market sentiment could shift quickly due to unexpected geopolitical events or breaking news. Traders should remain vigilant, flexible, and patient, waiting for clearer trends and stable trading volumes before taking decisive actions.

Market Overview

The upcoming week is pivotal for markets, with key economic data releases expected to shape global expectations. In the US, critical reports include ISM Services PMI, JOLTS Job Openings, ADP Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Claims, FOMC meeting minutes, and Friday's NFP and earnings data. Globally, markets will watch German CPI (today), Swiss CPI (Tuesday), Australian CPI (Wednesday), and Canadian employment figures (Friday).

These data points could drive significant market moves, offering insights into global economic conditions. The geopolitical landscape, particularly Donald Trumps January 20 inauguration, adds further uncertainty. Anticipated shifts in fiscal policy may lead to increased gold buying, a stronger US dollar, weakness in the Euro and Pound, and uncertain movements for the Yen, depending on Bank of Japan policies. Traders should prepare for heightened market volatility.

Market Analysis

GOLD - Gold shows bearish momentum after failing to break $2,670.882, though a potential upward correction remains likely due to proximity to the previous swing low, despite bearish signals from the RSI and MACD.

SILVER - silver remains in a consolidation range ($29.900 - $29.0177), with a downside test of the lower boundary anticipated as selling pressure increases, though the RSI hints at some buying strength.

DXY - he US Dollar Index (DXY) shows signs of slowing bullish momentum, with a potential retracement to 109.500 before resuming its upward trend, supported by RSI and MACD indicators.

GBPUSD - The British Pound has shown strength recently, with buying momentum continuing from a brief pause in the dollars rise. The RSI and MACD both reflect increased volume and momentum in favor of the pound, but overall price action still remains some distance away from signaling a clear shift in momentum. As a result, a temporary turnaround is expected before or around the 1.24754 level before the bearish trend resumes.

AUDUSD - The Australian Dollar continues to struggle, even in the face of a weaker dollar. Prices remain largely stagnant between key levels, suggesting a lack of direction. The MACD shows increased selling pressure, although the RSI has yet to give a clear indication of market direction. Further trading is needed to assess how the Aussie reacts to critical market structures, but the outlook remains bearish for now.

NZDUSD - Similarly, the New Zealand Dollar faces heightened selling pressure, with price action stuck within a consolidation zone. The MACD is about to shift downward, further confirming the possibility of lower prices ahead. Despite some uncertainty from the RSI, the overall trend is one of bearish continuation, with selling pressure expected to dominate in the near future.

EURUSD - The Euro is anticipated to continue its weakness, particularly as the year progresses. Current price action suggests a temporary pullback before the Euro tests the 1.03311 level, where it is expected to continue its downward movement. Although the RSI indicates strengthening buying momentum, price divergence hints at a potential turnaround soon, as the MACD shows weakening volume and momentum.

USDJPY - The Japanese Yen remains under pressure due to the Bank of Japan's hesitancy to raise interest rates. Despite this, the MACD is showing increasing buying volume, though the RSI indicates overbought conditions at the 157.720 level. A potential resistance is forming, and a retracement may occur before a continuation in the bullish direction. Despite a slowdown in dollar buying, overall market momentum remains firmly bullish for the Yen, and price action suggests waiting for a breakout from the current consolidation before taking a position.

USDCHF - The Swiss Franc is currently experiencing increased buying, with price action respecting the bullish momentum. The most recent price movement suggests the end of a retracement around the 0.90743 level, where the RSI indicates oversold conditions, signaling potential bullish continuation. The MACD is also showing lessened selling volume, with a potential upward crossover in sight. Additional confirmation is needed, but the market seems poised for more upward movement.

USDCAD - USDCAD consolidates around 1.44440, leaning toward a bullish continuation, though recent momentum appears to be waning.