DBG Markets: Market Report for Jan 03, 2025

Market Overview

Market trading has resumed following a brief pause over the New Year holidays. As trading activity picks up, the reintroduction of trades and volume is expected to occur gradually but with increasing momentum. Investors and traders are beginning to renew expectations and strategies, aligning them with potential shifts in global policies.

Geopolitical tensions, particularly those related to ongoing conflicts, remain a central focus. These tensions are likely to intensify or resolve as January progresses, with significant developments anticipated on January 20, when Donald Trump officially assumes the presidency. This day is expected to bring substantial activity and policy shifts.

In preparation for pro-inflationary measures expected under the new administration, there is a growing consensus to allocate investments toward precious metals and the US dollar as safe havens. These assets offer protection against market volatility and uncertainties stemming from geopolitical and economic developments.

GOLD

Gold prices have started the year with significant gains, currently trading above 2,653.515. The asset has seen increased buying activity as investors seek safety in anticipation of market changes under the Trump administration. Analysts project prices could reach $3,000 by year-end, making gold a strong candidate for long-term security.

The technical indicators show a robust uptrend:

• The MACD highlights increased buying volume.

• The RSI reflects bullish momentum but shows signs of divergence, suggesting the potential for a short-term pullback before continuation of the uptrend.

SILVER

Silver has also seen a positive start to the year, with increased buying volume following a period of stagnation. However, technical indicators show:

• MACD: Decreasing volume, signaling a potential slowdown in bullish momentum.

• RSI: Declining momentum despite overall price gains.

While prices remain in a bullish trend, short-term consolidation may occur before further upward movement.

DXY (US Dollar Index)

The dollar has strengthened, driven by expectations of inflationary policies under the new administration.

• MACD: Increased buying volume supports the bullish outlook.

• RSI: Displays exaggerated bearish signals despite slow market movement.

This divergence suggests the potential for continued dollar strength, albeit with some caution.

• GBPUSD

The British pound has weakened, dropping to 1.23720.

• MACD: Rising selling volume.

• RSI: Signals overbought levels, increasing the likelihood of continued selling pressure.

• AUDUSD

The Australian dollar remains in a consolidation phase, nearing the lower end of its range.

• NZDUSD

The New Zealand dollar is experiencing sustained selling pressure.

• MACD and RSI: Both indicate bearish momentum, suggesting further downside risk.

• EURUSD

The euro has faced continued selling pressure as geopolitical relations with the US are expected to sour under the Trump administration.

• Outlook: Continued weakness in the euro is anticipated.

• USDJPY

The yen remains weak against the dollar, though signs of resistance are emerging.

• MACD: Indicates selling continuation.

• RSI: Divergence hints at a possible short-term recovery before further dollar gains.

• USDCHF

The Swiss franc is experiencing strong buying activity, supported by:

• MACD: Positive buying momentum.

• RSI: Diverging from price action, suggesting cautious optimism for continued bullish movement.

• USDCAD

The Canadian dollar is consolidating despite dollar strength.

• MACD: Signals a selling crossover.

• RSI: Reflects a possible turnaround.

Consolidation may persist, with a potential resumption of dollar strength depending on future price action.