DBG Markets: Market Report for Dec 19, 2024

Market Overview

GOLD - Gold plunged following the Federal Reserve's rate cut announcement, as officials signaled a slower pace of rate cuts in the coming year. The outcome aligned with market expectations, but the anticipated weakness in the USD did not materialize. Continued selling pressure is likely, though investors will be closely watching Friday‘s inflation report and Thursday’s GDP data to gauge overall market direction.

Overall, the dollar remains fundamentally strong. The MACD has turned downward, reflecting strong selling momentum, while the RSI similarly signals overbought levels despite only a slight uptick in price action.

SILVER - Silver prices continued their decline, supported by increasing bearish momentum on the MACD and RSI. Both indicators reflect robust selling pressure, aligning with broader market fundamentals.

DXY - The dollar surged after the Federal Reserve adopted a more hawkish stance, indicating higher rates for a longer period. The MACD and RSI both signal strong bullish momentum, though the RSI has yet to fully reflect the strength seen in last nights rally. Further gains are expected for the dollar.

GBPUSD - The pound weakened following the Feds announcement, consistent with expectations for a continuation of the selling trend after prices failed to surpass the previous swing high. The MACD and RSI both show increased selling momentum, with the RSI falling short of reaching oversold conditions, indicating room for further declines.

AUDUSD - The Aussie dollars weakness persisted, with prices continuing their downward trend as anticipated. The MACD maintains selling momentum, gaining strength, while the RSI remains consolidated, with some room left before hitting overbought conditions.

NZDUSD - The Kiwi experienced strong bearish momentum, with the MACD showing increasing strength. However, the RSI remains subdued, failing to fully capture the markets selling intensity and staying in a consolidated state.

EURUSD - The euro weakened after breaking below 1.04672, following market expectations. However, the extent of the decline surprised analysts who had anticipated a weaker dollar in the short term. The Feds hawkish tone for the coming year shifted sentiment sharply, leading to a surge in dollar strength.

The MACD reflects further bearish momentum, while the RSI remains consolidated, unable to fully capture current market conditions. Overall, bearish momentum is expected to persist for the euro.

USDJPY - The yen gained strength and bullish momentum but struggled to move decisively past the 154.703 resistance level. Despite the Feds rate decision, price movement remained subdued.

Traders currently assign a 20% probability to a Bank of Japan rate hike on Thursday, with expectations shifting toward a January decision. Policymakers continue to keep markets uncertain.

USDCHF - The Swiss franc showed increased bullish momentum, supported by the RSI, which indicates potential for a reversal following price divergence. The divergence may also suggest growing strength in the bullish trend. While there is some uncertainty about the direction, further upside momentum is expected.

USDCAD - The CAD reached 1.44440 as predicted, with the MACD reflecting strong buying momentum. The RSI also signals bullish strength, despite low levels that follow a significant price move. Market reactions have been slightly delayed, but further buying is anticipated.