DBG Markets: Market Report for Dec 04, 2024

Market Overview

Market data released yesterday underscored a resilient U.S. economy, with the JOLTS report revealing job openings of 7.74 million, surpassing expectations. This was further bolstered by an improvement in ISM Manufacturing PMI, which posted 48.4, signaling a slight expansion.

On Tuesday, the 10-year Treasury yield edged up by 2 basis points to 4.23% (as of 4 a.m. ET), while the 2-year Treasury yield dipped by 1 basis point to 4.186%. These movements reflect market anticipation of upcoming data that could provide further insights into the economy's health. The Labor Departments Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for October, released earlier in the day, confirmed the labor market's resilience.

Despite this, the Australian economy disappointed, reporting a GDP growth of just 0.3%, below the anticipated 0.5%, which added pressure on the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Geopolitical tensions in South Korea also contributed to regional instability, with lawmakers rejecting a proposed martial law declaration.

U.S. Index Performance

S&P 500: Closed at 6049.88, with a marginal gain of 0.0451%. The day's range was 6033.39 to 6052.07.

Dow Jones: Ended at 44705.53, down -0.1708%, fluctuating between 44574.78 and 44914.68.

NASDAQ Composite: Rose to 19480.91, up 0.3966%, with a daily range of 19340.41 to 19486.15.

FTSE 100: Slightly lower at 8358.26, trading between 8343.61 and 8386.44.

Nikkei 225: Reached 39077.24, with intraday movements between 39029.49 and 39164.94.

GOLD - Gold prices remain uncertain despite the strong JOLTS data. Analysts are weighing the market's next direction amid expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating a 71% likelihood of easing.

The MACD signals bullish momentum, but the RSI remains neutral, reflecting uncertainty. Overall, price action suggests bearish undertones until clearer signals emerge.

SILVER - Silver surpassed its previous swing high, hinting at a bullish trend. However, consolidation below 31.4724 is still possible, with potential for upward continuation. RSI divergence supports a buying scenario, while the MACD reflects hesitation, indicating a pullback might precede further gains.

DXY - The U.S. dollar remains consolidated, with bullish momentum expected after breaking a prior swing high. MACD histogram prints have lightened, but the RSI shows strong momentum and volume for a bullish continuation. Markets await further data and clarity on potential rate cuts.

GBPUSD - The pound found support, suggesting further upward movement. The MACD reflects robust bullish momentum, while the RSI indicates stagnation but leans slightly toward buying. While price momentum suggests a bullish continuation, some rejection hints at the possibility of retracement.

AUDUSD - The Aussie dollar weakened after GDP data fell below expectations, reinforcing selling momentum. The MACD recently crossed downward, and the RSI reflects increased bearish sentiment. Markets predict a 9% chance of a December rate cut, with the likelihood rising to 30% for February.

NZDUSD - The Kiwi continues to face selling pressure, confirmed by MACD and RSI momentum. After failing to breach its previous swing high, bearish sentiment dominates. Rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, now at 4.25%, along with geopolitical risks, contribute to its weakness.

EURUSD - The euro remains range-bound, trading between two key levels. The MACD shows lighter bearish prints, while the RSI leans toward selling momentum. Until a breakout occurs, the euro's direction remains uncertain.

USDJPY - The yen experienced strength as prices dropped, although the dollar recovered, testing its previous swing high. RSI levels near overbought territory hint at potential selling, while the MACD suggests a buying cross unless significant bearish action occurs.

USDCHF - The Swiss franc continued its bullish trend, recovering after repeated failed attempts to breach a prior swing low. The RSI and MACD support upward momentum, indicating strong buying potential.

USDCAD - The CAD shows upward momentum, with the RSI and MACD signaling strong buying strength. A sharp recovery in price from recent lows suggests a continuation of the bullish trend.