DBG Markets: Market Report for Nov 26, 2024

Market Overview

GOLD - Gold showed weakness following yesterdays trading session. According to U.S. officials cited by Axios on Monday, Israel agreed to a ceasefire deal with Lebanon. Despite this agreement, Israel continues to bombard Beirut while Hezbollah fires rockets across the border. This development has eased some of the tensions that surged last week when Ukraine carried out its first missile strikes on Russia using foreign-supplied weapons. Russia retaliated with nuclear threats and launched an experimental missile targeting Dnipro, pushing gold prices up 6.5%.

From a technical perspective, the charts indicate a shift in momentum following the price drop below the previous swing low. The MACD crossed downward with significant momentum and volume, signaling the potential for further downside. Additionally, an RSI divergence confirmed the continuation of bearish momentum before the drop. Currently, the RSI suggests a possible pullback before the downtrend resumes.

SILVER - Silver prices experienced a sell-off, breaking below the previous swing low. A complete shift in price momentum is anticipated once there is a clear break below this level. The RSI suggests a potential pullback from the current price zone, while the MACD shows weakening volume and momentum. Despite this, the relevance of the swing low supports the continuation of the bearish trend.

DXY - The dollar weakened on Monday after President-elect Trump announced Scott Bessent as his pick for US Treasury Secretary. Bessent, regarded as a fiscal hawk, advocates for reduced government spending and more gradual tariffs, which are seen as negatives for the dollar. His nomination also alleviates concerns about Trumps inflationary policies, as Bessent is expected to adopt a more measured approach.

Technically, the RSI reflects choppy price action, with the MACD showing a growing bearish trend. While the previous swing low remains intact, the broader outlook remains bullish for the dollar. However, near-term indicators point to a bearish market.

GBPUSD - The pound continued to show weakness despite the dollar easing from its recent strength. The MACD has shifted downward with strong RSI momentum supporting the sell-off. Price action also suggests that bearish momentum will likely persist. Thus, the outlook for the pound remains bearish.

AUDUSD - The Aussie dollar saw a sharp decline, confirming market continuation for a sell-off after a strong rejection from a previous swing high. Both the MACD and RSI exhibit strong bearish momentum, reinforcing the case for continued downside.

NZDUSD - The Kiwi mirrors the Australian dollar's movement, with strong selling momentum evident in both the MACD and RSI. Price action also confirms this bearish trend, maintaining the focus on selling opportunities in this market.

EURUSD - The euro showed significant weakness after failing to retest its previous swing high. This was followed by a sharp decline in strength. The MACD indicates a potential cross as lighter histograms print, signaling reduced momentum. Similarly, the RSI confirms the downtrend with consecutive swing lows.

USDJPY - The yen's strength remains consistent but has reached a standstill against the dollar. While it shows enough strength to approach lower levels, it has yet to break below the previous low. With both the RSI and MACD reflecting consolidated movement, the outlook for the yen remains neutral.

USDCHF - The franc maintains bullish momentum, with a pullback from Monday's weaker dollar being evident. After this pullback, the price is expected to resume its bullish trend in upcoming sessions. The RSI indicates a shift toward bullish momentum, though the MACD suggests some price weakness with lighter prints hinting at a potential upward cross.

USDCAD - The Canadian dollar opened the session with a sudden burst of weakness, erasing recent gains. This followed news of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire deal, which eased concerns over oil prices. The prospect of falling oil prices poses challenges to Canadas growth and profit, negatively impacting the currency's value.

Although the MACD and RSI do not fully reflect the strength of the current move, they suggest potential for continued upside after a pullback. Price action points to a resumption of the uptrend following this temporary dip.