U.S. October "Terror Data" Surprises to the Upside; Fed's Collins Says No Urgent Need to Cut Rates!

TOPONE Markets | 2024-11-18 10:14

Abstract：Hot spot tracking U.S. retail sales recorded a monthly rate of 0.4% in October, and the September growth rate was revised up from 0.4% to 0.8%. Traders have scaled back bets on a rate cut by the Fe

Hot spot tracking

U.S. retail sales recorded a monthly rate of 0.4% in October, and the September growth rate was revised up from 0.4% to 0.8%. Traders have scaled back bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2025, cutting the chance of a rate cut in December to about 50%. Positive for the US dollar.

The European Commission predicts that the euro area economic growth will be 0.8%, 1.3% and 1.6% from 2024 to 2026, and the inflation rate will be 2.4%, 2.1% and 1.9%. Guindos, Vice President of the European Central Bank: The European Central Bank believes that the outlook for inflation is positive, but its economic growth expectations are negative. Negative for the euro.

A Trump ally proposed selling some of the Federal Reserve's gold and buying 1 million Bitcoins. Positive for Bitcoin.

Product Hot Comment

Forex
ProductYesterday's ChangeYesterday's CloseToday's OpenEUR/USD▼-0.03%1.052721.05328GBP/USD▼-0.46%1.260611.26164AUD/USD▲0.04%0.645880.64598USD/JPY▼-1.29%154.286154.559GBP/CAD▼-0.23%1.775991.77623NZD/CAD▲0.40%0.825220.82542
📝 Review:Last Friday, the U.S. dollar index fluctuated and fell during the Asian and European markets. However, as U.S. retail sales data for October exceeded expectations, the dollar index narrowed its losses. It finally closed down 0.18% at 106.67. The benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield closed at 4.4440%; the two-year U.S. bond yield closed at 4.3310%.
🕵️ Operation suggestion:USD/JPY 154.587 Buy Target Price 156.797

Gold
ProductYesterday's ChangeYesterday's CloseToday's OpenGold▼-0.11%2562.172563.2Silver▼-0.61%30.23330.315
📝 Review:Spot gold fell as expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve further faded, falling below $2,560 during the session. It finally closed down 0.06% at $2,562.81 per ounce, marking the largest weekly decline in more than three years. Spot silver finally closed down 0.66% at $30.25 per ounce.
🕵️ Operation suggestion:Gold 2573.00 Sell Target Price 2535.34

Crude Oil
ProductYesterday's ChangeYesterday's CloseToday's OpenWTI Crude Oil▼-2.21%66.89566.735Brent Crude Oil▼-1.84%70.87971.023
📝 Review:International oil prices slumped as U.S. President-elect Trump promised to resolve conflicts in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine. WTI crude oil finally closed down 2.43% at US$66.90 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 1.95% at US$71.00 per barrel.
🕵️ Operation suggestion:WTI Crude Oil 66.699 Buy Target Price 69.162

Indice
ProductYesterday's ChangeYesterday's CloseToday's OpenNasdaq 100▼-2.18%2040620414.33Dow Jones▼-0.64%43471.443449.9S&P 500▼-1.15%5871.155870.35▼0.00%17559.317559.3US Dollar Index▼-0.09%106.6106.59
📝 Review:U.S. stocks ended lower on Friday. The rising momentum of U.S. stocks after the election faded, with all three major stock indexes recording losses last week. The Dow fell 0.70% to 43444.99 points; the Nasdaq fell 2.24% to 18680.12 points; the S&P 500 fell 1.32% to 5870.62 points. Among them, the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Index both recorded their largest weekly declines since September, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded its largest weekly decline since late October. Large technology stocks generally fell, with the TAMAMA Technology Index falling 2.44%. In terms of individual stocks, Amazon (AMZN.O) fell more than 4%, Meta Platforms (META.O) fell more than 4%, and Nvidia (NVDA.O) fell more than 3%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed up 0.82%, with most popular Chinese concept stocks rising, with JD.com (JD.O) rising nearly 5%.
🕵️ Operation suggestion:Nasdaq 100 20479.960 Sell Target Price 20015.498

Crypto
ProductYesterday's ChangeYesterday's CloseToday's OpenBitCoin▼-1.60%89174.389573.9Ethereum▼-2.24%30633068.4Dogecoin▼-2.29%0.355780.36086
📝 Review:The current surge in Bitcoin prices is mainly driven by two major factors. One is that Trump‘s victory has stimulated the market’s optimistic expectations for Bitcoin. The other is a leading global wealth management institution. BlackRock, in particular, has invested huge sums of money in buying Bitcoin. The CEO of BlackRock has publicly stated that Bitcoins potential as an investment tool is comparable to gold.
🕵️ Operation suggestion:BitCoin 89849.0 Buy Target Price 93538.2