KVB Market Analysis | 15 Nov: Aussie Dollar Declines Amid China's Economic Struggles

Product: XAU/USD

Prediction: Decrease

Fundamental Analysis:

Spot gold prices dropped again, hitting a two-month low during the session as the rising U.S. Dollar Index reached a yearly high, making gold less attractive for non-U.S. buyers. Recent comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested there might not be a rate cut in December, which added pressure on gold prices. Powell mentioned there is no rush to cut rates, which led to a drop in gold. Gold remains under pressure due to the strong dollar and recent U.S. inflation data. U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data exceeded expectations, suggesting the Fed might reconsider its easing cycle. According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Octobers PPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year, higher than the expected 2.3% and September's 1.9%. The core PPI, often influencing the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, increased by 3.1% from the previous year, above the prior 2.9% and the forecasted 3%.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices recently fell below the October 10 low of $2,603 per ounce, accelerating their decline after breaking the $2,600 mark. This opened the way for a two-month low of $2,536 per ounce. Gold briefly dropped below its 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $2,547. If prices go below $2,536, they could fall further toward the $2,500 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved away from the neutral line, indicating a bearish trend, which may lead to more declines. On the upside, the first resistance level is around $2,600. If buyers regain this level, prices could test the 50-day moving average of $2,650, followed by resistance near $2,700. A break above these levels could open the path to the November 7 high of $2,710 per ounce.

Product: USD/JPY

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis:

The USD/JPY pair continues to rise, reaching around 156.60, the highest level since July, during early Friday‘s Asian session. This increase is supported by the stronger US Dollar. Traders are awaiting US October Retail Sales data due later in the day. Japan's preliminary GDP for Q3 showed 0.2% growth quarterly, matching expectations but lower than the previous 0.5%. The annualized GDP growth was 0.9%, slightly above the 0.7% forecast but down from Q2’s 2.2% growth, keeping the Yen weak after the release. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that income data will be closely watched for future policy, adding uncertainty around rate hikes. However, statements from Japanese officials may help limit the Yens losses.

Technical Analysis:

From a technical view, USD/JPY's recent rise above the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the July-September drop and a close over the 155.00 level on Wednesday support a bullish outlook. Daily chart indicators show positive momentum without nearing overbought levels, hinting that USD/JPY may continue higher. A move above 156.00 could lead to testing resistance around 156.55-156.60, with potential to reach 157.00 and even the 157.30-157.35 area. On the downside, support around 155.35-155.30, followed by the 155.00 level, could limit immediate declines. A break below 155.00 might lead to further selling, targeting support at 154.55-154.50, then 154.00, with additional support at 153.80 and 153.45.

Product: EUR/USD

Prediction: Decrease

Fundamental Analysis:

On Thursday, EUR/USD briefly dropped to new lows for the year, breaking below 1.0500 for the first time in over a year. Limited European data is not providing much support for the Euro, so demand for the safe-haven US Dollar is pushing EUR/USD down. Recent European GDP data didn‘t boost the Euro, as it met expectations: quarterly growth was 0.4%, and annual growth was 0.9%. Producer Price Index (PPI) data, showing producer-level inflation, was mostly in line with forecasts. October’s headline PPI rose 0.2% compared to the previous months 0.1%, while core PPI grew slightly faster than expected, reaching 3.1% year-on-year.

Technical Analysis:

The EUR/USD daily chart shows strong downward momentum. The pair has dropped below both the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at around 1.0867 and 1.0884, respectively. Recently, the 50-day EMA crossed below the 200-day EMA, a "death cross" signal, which usually suggests continued downward movement. EUR/USD is near multi-month lows at 1.0520, which could offer temporary support. However, any rebound may face strong resistance around 1.0700. The MACD indicator also points to a bearish outlook, with its line below the signal line in negative territory, showing continued selling pressure. Unless the pair breaks above the EMAs, the trend remains downward. If it falls below 1.0500, it may target 1.0400 next. A clear recovery above 1.0880 would be needed to shift this bearish view.