DBG Markets: Market Report for Nov 13, 2024

Market Overview

Australian wages show no change at 0.8%, ten basis points below expected growth for this months report. Meanwhile, focus shifts to inflation reports from the FED later this evening. Depending on the inflation outcome, expectations for a December rate cut may shift, influenced by the “Trump trade” effect on markets and companies, which anticipate boosted domestic production and reduced imports due to tariffs.

Currently, there is a 60% chance of another quarter-point rate cut priced in for December, down from about 84% a month ago, per CME Groups FedWatch Tool.

GOLD - Spot GOLD finds bearish momentum from yesterdays trading. RSI further extends divergence, while the MACD shows strength in the bullish pullback. However, GOLD may continue to decline as increased tariff expectations under Trump raise inflation concerns, strengthening the dollar and lowering metal trades. Near-term outlook for GOLD remains bearish.

SILVER - SILVER is now pulling back from yesterdays low. We expect further selling in the market, though the RSI and MACD currently indicate bullishness.

DXY - The dollar gains strength as investors price in risk from Trumps policies. A FED rate cut may be delayed to accommodate tariff-driven inflation. The MACD is crossing low, and the RSI shows a sell signal. We expect further short-term selling until the CPI report provides direction.

GBPUSD - Following yesterday‘s divergence, bearish continuation pushed prices lower. There’s minimal resistance for continued bearish momentum, aside from bullish RSI suggesting a short-term pullback. CPI data later could impact this trend.

AUDUSD - The Aussie dollar extends low divergence, hinting at a potential price rise. However, prices broke through expectations with the MACD crossing low, though without a clear directional push as the price gap remains unconvincing. Price action suggests a downtrend breach, with consolidation likely until CPI data clarifies dollar rate cut expectations.

NZDUSD - The Kiwi aligns with RSI divergence as prices continue down. Price and MACD suggest bearish momentum continuation, though RSI hints at a bullish pullback.

EURUSD - The Euro shows continued weakness, as expected. While MACD and RSI suggest a potential pullback, we maintain a long-term bearish outlook.

USDJPY - The Yen continues upward momentum, with MACD supporting bullish movement, although RSI shows limited strength. Price action indicates further buying.

USDCHF - The Franc moves upward but lacks strength for further ascent. A pullback seems possible, as the MACD and RSI both suggest a downside continuation. Price action shows room for a bullish continuation but also space for a pullback.

USDCAD - CAD shows increased pullback potential. MACD crosses low, and RSI supports a downside move, though price action indicates continued buying momentum. This may depend on forthcoming CPI data.