Your Daily Financial Fix

Market Overview

Several data releases will impact the market this week, helping shape expectations for a potential FED rate cut in December. Key inflation reports for the dollar are due Wednesday and Thursday for the Consumer and Producer indexes, respectively. Unemployment claims will release Thursday, while Core Retail Sales and a speech from FED Chairman Powell are set for Friday, providing insights into the FED‘s current stance on monetary policy. The RBA’s rate cut expectations for December are also in focus this week, with wage data releasing Wednesday and employment data Thursday.

The pound is set for unemployment data on Tuesday and GDP reports on Friday, along with a BOE governor discussion on potential rate cuts. Earlier today, New Zealand released inflation data showing an increase to 2.12% from the previous 2.03%, with little reaction from the market.

Market Analysis

GOLD - Price follows through the RSI divergence with the MACD crossing toward the low while respecting the previous swing high. Currently, price action suggests continuation of bearish momentum. However, considering fundamental factors—especially with the West Asia conflict reaching a turning point—we will keep a close watch on developments for any sudden shifts.

SILVER - SILVER continues to show weakness as price follows through with RSI divergence, the MACD crossing downward, and price action suggesting ongoing bearish momentum. As with GOLD, we are monitoring for any developments that could alter the markets direction.

DXY - The dollar shows continued strength, as RSI divergence indicates a continuation toward the high, as noted in previous analysis. The MACD also aligns with the dollars price strength. We await any fundamental developments but currently expect continued strength in the dollar.

GBPUSD - The pound remains consolidated within a range, with the MACD showing low volume, suggesting a possible turnaround. Low volume in the MACD histogram and RSI divergence also point to a potential reversal. For now, we expect a weaker pound in the long run.

AUDUSD - The Aussie dollar shows market weakness as prices indicate continued selling. However, a pullback may occur, with the MACD histogram reflecting reduced selling volume and the RSI turning upward. A break below the swing low would confirm a bearish price momentum shift, but we have yet to see such a turn.

NZDUSD - RSI suggests a possible price turnaround, with the RSI moving upward and strong momentum alongside a weakening MACD. Current price action has not confirmed a directional shift, as the price may breach either side. We are waiting for further confirmation before identifying a market direction, though the dollars current trajectory suggests a stronger dollar and potential for selling the Kiwi.

EURUSD - As indicated by the RSI, the euro encountered market supply and shows signs of continued selling. MACD analysis supports further bearish activity, though a near-term correction may occur given weaker volume on the MACD and an upward RSI trend. However, price action currently signals a continuation for the sell.

USDJPY - The yen shows continued strength, maintaining its selling momentum from the end of last week. Market action aligns with a bullish MACD trend and an upward RSI. Price action also suggests continued bullishness, and we anticipate sustained buying in this market.

USDCHF - The market suggests continued weakness for the franc, with the MACD indicating bearish movement and RSI divergence supporting bullish momentum. Price action also signals potential continuation for further price gains.

USDCAD - A possible correction is likely, as indicated by RSI divergence and weaker MACD histogram volume. Price action also suggests a bearish shift after breaking below the previous swing low. If the CAD price remains below the recent swing high, we expect the market to continue favoring bears.

COT Report Analysis

AUD - STRONG (3/5)

GBP - WEAK (3/5)

CAD - WEAK (5/5)

EUR - WEAK (3/5)

JPY - WEAK (5/5)

CHF - WEAK (3/5)

USD - MIXED

NZD - WEAK (5/5)

GOLD - STRONG (3/5)

SILVER - WEAK (1/5)