What to Expect on Election Day!

Reminder

The volatility of the markets during elections is not to be understated. There are large risk trading markets like these, so we suggest you stay out of the market if you are not ready to take risks. However, if you are confident with the direction you are trading, we still suggest trading with extreme caution.

Market Overview

What to Trade and Expect on Election Day

As traders globally prepare for a potential “Trump Trade,” many anticipate a Trump victory, viewing it as a more predictable and possibly profitable market outcome. However, a Harris win remains possible, so lets look at how each scenario could affect your trading choices.

Harris would maintain Bidens policies, potentially leading to a dollar drop of up to 5%.

Trump, in contrast, is expected to drive the dollar up by over 7% due to inflation from import tariffs. Other currencies like the Euro and Mexican Peso may decline due to renewed tariffs under his administration.

Stock Market: Analysts expect a moderate rise regardless of the outcome. With a likely Trump win, the market projects smaller swings due to the anticipated direction.

Result Timing: While results timing isnt definitive, they may arrive later this morning or within two days, depending on vote counts.

Current Standings: As reported by CNN, Trump currently leads in some states: Kentucky (71.8%), Indiana (61.1%), and Florida (51.9%). His popular vote share is at 54.9%, with an electoral lead of 8 to Harris's 3.

COT Reports Analysis

AUD - STRONG (5/5)

GBP - WEAK (2/5)

CAD - WEAK (5/5)

EUR - WEAK (5/5)

JPY - WEAK (5/5)

CHF - WEAK (5/5)

USD - STRONG (5/5)

NZD - WEAK (5/5)

GOLD - STRONG (3/5)

SILVER - STRONG (3/5)