DBG Markets: Market Report for Nov 01, 2024

Market Overview

Rate Cuts Watch RBNZ: Investors expect a 50 basis point cut on Nov. 27.RBA: No rate changes expected in November; first cut anticipated in May 2024.ECB: Policymakers are divided on a half-point cut in December.BOE: Markets indicate an 80% chance of a 0.25% cut on Nov. 7.FED: A 94.7% probability for a quarter-point cut on Nov. 7.SNB: December rate cut likely.BOC: December cut odds at 90%; rate expected at 2.75% by next years end.BOJ: Maintains ultra-low rates but hints at potential hikes as inflation stabilizes.

GOLD - Gold retraced from recent highs after CPI and unemployment data met expectations, dampening chances of an aggressive FED rate cut in November. We anticipate bullish continuation as geopolitical tension in Israel and the upcoming U.S. elections support Golds safe-haven appeal. Increased chances of a Trump win, suggesting an expansionary economic outlook, may strengthen the Dollar.

SILVER - experienced a sell-off, reaching 32.518, with heightened chances of continued downward momentum as it broke the previous swing low. Nonetheless, recent fundamental developments may influence prices positively, so further market movements will confirm the trend.

DXY - While the Dollar consolidates, strength is anticipated following recent economic reports. Upcoming NFP data will guide expectations for potential rate cuts. Despite consolidation, the Dollar remains bullish, respecting previous lows and trading within range.

GBPUSD - Recent data supports the probability of a November rate cut, aligning with technical indicators that suggest continued downside momentum.

AUDUSD - The Aussie broke below 0.65618, maintaining a bearish trend. Price action suggests further downside as the pair respects previous swing highs.

NZDUSD - Consolidation continues, though bearish momentum is likely, aligning with market pricing for a 50 basis point rate cut in November. Technically, the pair is respecting swing highs, confirming the bearish outlook.

EURUSD - Euro shows bullish momentum, reinforced by lower chances of a December ECB rate cut and expected U.S. rate cuts. This aligns with technical indicators supporting Euro strength against the Dollar.

USDJPY - Yen gained some strength after a slightly less dovish BOJ stance. A selling trend may persist until Japans rate cut materializes.

USDCHF - The Franc remains in a consolidation phase, with current conditions suggesting bullish continuation as it attracts safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty.

USDCAD - CAD buying continues, with bullish momentum likely to persist as previous swing lows remain intact. Rising oil prices and West Asian instability may further support CADs strength in the near future.