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Market Analysis

GOLD - GOLD has found an all-time high before swiftly retracting to the swing low in a corrective manner during the NY session. We expect further buying as momentum continues; however, the current market is still experiencing some selling pressure.

SILVER - SILVER is currently stagnating, testing 33.503 and finding strength for further selling. However, until the price breaks below this structure, bullish momentum is expected.

DXY - The Dollar is currently gaining strength as strong momentum continues, pushing the price toward 104.607. We expect further buying to continue, with a possible selling correction happening right now during the Asian session. Expectations for 50-basis-point rate cuts over the remaining two meetings of 2024 dropped to about 65%, down from 70% the day before, and about 85% a week ago.

GBPUSD - The Pound is falling further, as expected, after the price failed to break above 1.29966. We continue to see weakness in this market, with a rate cut from the BOE expected in the coming months.

AUDUSD - The Pound is falling further, as expected, after the price failed to break above 1.29966. We continue to see weakness in this market, with a rate cut from the BOE expected in the coming months.

NZDUSD - The Kiwi is currently experiencing further weakness as expected. There is no change in market expectations, as another rate cut is priced in for this November. No changes in our expectations for this market.

EURUSD - The Euro is currently weakening as expected, with markets anticipating a possible rate cut in the coming months by the ECB. Traders have ramped up bets on faster and potentially bigger rate cuts after a host of policymakers warned about the risk of undershooting the ECB's 2% inflation target, a remarkable change in tone after a two-year campaign to rein in prices.

On Wednesday, ECB President Christine Lagarde took a more measured stance, saying policymakers need to be “cautious” in deciding policy, although colleague Mario Centeno suggested rates could be cut by 50 basis points at the monetary authority's next meeting on Dec. 12.

USDJPY - The Yen is still weakening as expected, with the market finding a buy toward 152.718. We expect continued buying momentum from here and see higher potential for the market to continue buying until a sudden BOJ intervention occurs to control currency strength.

USDCHF - The Franc is finding weakness, breaking above the S&D structure. However, the price still found strength, returning it to the trading range after an underwhelming rise. This is well within our expectations for this market. While we witness strength coming into the dollar due to increased geopolitical risks, the Franc will experience heightened demand.

USDCAD - The CAD is currently continuing to rise as long as the swing low is respected. However, there is a chance for the Loonie to recover strength as oil gains amid the intensifying West Asia conflict.

COT Reports Analysis

AUD - WEAK (2/5)

GBP - WEAK (2/5)

CAD - WEAK (5/5)

EUR - WEAK (3/5)

JPY - STRONG (5/5)

CHF - WEAK (5/5)

USD - MIXED

NZD - MIXED

GOLD - STRONG (5/5)

SILVER - STRONG (4/5)