KVB Market Analysis | 17 Oct: XAU/USD Holds Steady at $2,675 Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Strong D

Product: XAU/USD

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis:

On Thursday, October 17, during the Asian trading session, spot gold remained strong after a big rise the day before, with the price hovering around $2,675 per ounce. Despite a stronger US dollar, safe-haven demand continued to support gold, and on Wednesday, prices briefly approached record highs. Gold has pulled back slightly from its peak and is now trading near $2,675 per ounce. Meanwhile, 16 EU countries that contribute personnel to the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) agreed to put maximum pressure on Israel to prevent further attacks involving UNIFIL. On Wednesday, UNIFIL reported that an Israeli tank fired at a UNIFIL observation post in the southern Lebanese border village of Kfar Kila, damaging two cameras and the observation post itself.

Technical Analysis:

From a technical perspective, gold prices are likely to keep rising and could challenge the $2,700 per ounce level. On the daily chart, gold has been up for two days in a row, with the bullish 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing support around $2,644.10 per ounce. The longer-term moving averages also show a positive trend, reflecting a long-term bullish outlook. Momentum indicators are flat near the 100 line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rising, currently around 64, indicating buyers are in control. In the short term, based on the 4-hour chart, the risk remains to the upside. The 20-period SMA is above the 100-period SMA, while the 200-period SMA is moving higher below both, signalling increased upward momentum. Technical indicators are also regaining strength in positive territory after a minor pullback.

Product: USD/JPY

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis:

On Thursday, October 17, USD/JPY fell to 149.50 after Japans exports dropped for the first time in 10 months, signalling weaker global demand and a slowing economic recovery. Japan's Ministry of Finance reported a 1.7% year-on-year drop in exports, mainly due to declines in cars, mineral fuels, and construction machinery, marking the first negative growth since last November. The export decline was worse than the 0.9% growth economists predicted. This reflects a sluggish global economy, especially as major central banks cut interest rates to prevent further slowdowns. The European Central Bank is expected to announce another rate cut on Thursday.

Technical Analysis:

USD/JPY is hovering around $149.5, unable to break past $150 for several days. Stronger-than-expected US retail sales or lower-than-expected jobless claims might push USD/JPY above $150. However, if these indicators fall short, it could support expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. A more dovish Fed rate path might bring USD/JPY down below $149. If USD/JPY moves above 150.00, it could head towards the 100-day moving average at $150.98, and then the 200-day moving average at $151.27. On the other hand, if USD/JPY falls below $149.00, the first support will be at $147.95. If this level breaks, the next support will be at $146.48 and $145.36 (50-day moving average).

Product: BTC/USD

Prediction: Decrease

Fundamental Analysis:

After rising 16% over the past 6 days, Bitcoin's technical outlook suggests another breakout could be near, with the potential to surpass the psychological barrier of $70,000 in the coming days. The recent surge in Bitcoin's price is also driven by increased institutional interest, as seen in the growing trading volume on major exchanges. 

Technical Analysis:

Currently, Bitcoin's price is hovering above the pivot point (P) at $66,743, which acts as a key support level, and is close to the R1 resistance at $69,999.24. If it breaks this resistance, Bitcoin could test the upper target indicated by the R2 level at $71,905. The $70,000 level, which was once a resistance, may now become a key breakout target. A strong break above this level could open the door for Bitcoin to test the $75,000 range, which analysts see as the next major resistance. However, if Bitcoin fails to break $70,000, a short-term pullback may occur. In this case, immediate support lies at $67,000, with stronger support around $64,000, where previous consolidation happened. Despite potential short-term fluctuations, Bitcoins overall outlook remains bullish, especially if macroeconomic conditions continue to favour risk assets.