DBG Markets: Market Report for Oct 14, 2024

Market Overview

GOLD - GOLD is currently in a technical correction. However, based on a macro framework incorporating bond yields and corporate spreads, gold is entering a favorable environment of lower yields, wavering spreads, and continued elevated equity-bond correlations, according to commentary from the World Gold Council. This aligns with our long-term bullish expectations for GOLD. Intensified attacks on Lebanon and Gaza are driving prices up, with an increased outlook for safer alternatives and wealth protection.

SILVER - SILVER prices remain elevated and are currently stuck between 31.472 and 30.668. This move could either be a lower low or a higher low. We will wait to see how prices react at these levels. However, fundamentals and data still suggest a more bullish momentum for SILVER.

DXY - Last week's U.S. data, showing slightly hotter-than-expected consumer inflation but also higher weekly jobless claims, left intact expectations for the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in November and December. Traders are now eyeing Thursday's retail sales and jobless claims data in the U.S. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who speaks later on Monday, supports a larger rate cut due to concerns that inflation is undershooting the Fed's target. Technically, bullish momentum for the Dollar is ongoing but shows hesitation as prices fail to break the highs, despite a break above 102.775.

GBPUSD - The Pound remains consolidated, uncertain of its direction as markets await more data and news on the Dollar's movements. We remain between 1.31097 and 1.29966 for now.

AUDUSD - The Aussie dollar is similarly consolidated, waiting for more price movement and confirmation to establish its direction. However, current market conditions suggest a possible recovery from the bottom of the range.

NZDUSD - The Kiwi is rising but shows a slowdown in selling. This may be more of a technical correction than a sustained price increase, as the rise lacks sufficient volume or strength. Furthermore, we expect another aggressive rate cut in November.

EURUSD - Like the Euro, the market is trying to find direction. Selling momentum has not stopped and continues to push lower. We anticipate further selling but are waiting for the Euro's rate announcement on Thursday. Market expectations for a rate cut are high, especially since inflation fell below the 2% target.

USDJPY - The Yen continues to trade in a range, with no clear market direction. We await more clues to determine the market's next move. Currently, further buying is expected as both the Dollar and the Yen search for direction.

USDCHF - The Franc has not made a clear move yet. However, current market pricing suggests a continuation of buying, supported by technicals showing a higher low. Data releases later this week will provide further guidance.

USDCAD - CAD weakness remains evident as prices break through our structures. We are waiting for market continuation to confirm the overall direction, but as things stand, a turnaround seems unlikely anytime soon.