Market Outlook: Experts Weigh In on Today's News

Market Overview

Ukraine launched an offensive, taking 600 hostages and damaging infrastructure to gain leverage in talks with Russia. In response, Russia launched a series of missile and drone attacks on Ukraine, damaging civilian and military infrastructure across 15 regions. Despite Ukraine’s defense, Russia continued with another wave of attacks, killing civilians and intensifying the conflict.

Ukraine appealed to Western allies, including the U.S., for more defensive weapons and support. While the U.S. has provided defense aid, it hesitates to send long-range weapons, fearing escalation and global instability. Russia, aiming to crush Ukraine’s morale, uses these attacks to send a message of power to the world, showing its military might.

Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts for peace have emerged, with India and China proposing peace talks. Russia is open to China hosting, but Ukraine remains undecided. These developments suggest a broader geopolitical struggle, with the U.S. caught between fully supporting Ukraine and preventing further global conflict.

Market Analysis

GOLD - GOLD rose after yesterday’s trading, as traders shifted toward safe-haven assets ahead of the NFP report and the FED's rate cut decision. There is potential for prices to continue moving upward, possibly surpassing the previous high. While current price momentum favors buyers, we cannot dismiss the possibility of a deeper decline if the NFP report exceeds expectations and reduces the likelihood of a 50-bps rate cut.

SILVER - SILVER has climbed to 29.018, and the price could either retrace or continue moving beyond this level. Similar to GOLD, we await the data release to observe how analysts and major traders respond.

DXY - After the dollar reached 101.786, we observed weakness as market expectations for a larger rate cut increased. The reasoning behind this is that if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps, analysts and traders may adopt a more positive outlook for the U.S. economy, provided that subsequent data indicates stabilization or growth.

GBPUSD - The Pound has risen due to heightened market expectations. A similar pattern can be seen with other pairs like the Euro, which are gaining against the dollar. We are awaiting further market reactions after the NFP data release. Currently, we are seeing a retracement with a possible drop in the market. 

Alternatively, there could be a sharp rise above the previous structure followed by a sudden decline, depending on whether the NFP report supports the likelihood of an increased rate cut.

AUDUSD - The market has consolidated, trading between 0.67531 and 0.67142. While there is a strong chance that prices may rise from this level, we anticipate further consolidation until the data is released. You may take advantage of smaller price swings in the meantime.

NZDUSD - The Kiwi regained strength, pushing prices above 0.62086. However, with trades on hold in anticipation of the upcoming data release, we expect the Kiwi to either consolidate or fall back below this level.

EURUSD - The Euro gained as traders sought safer alternatives. Despite high trading volume yesterday, there was little price movement between buyers and sellers. In the later part of the New York session and the start of the Asian session, prices rose to fill the larger wick. As a result, we may see this market reach 1.11386, but we will wait for the data release before drawing further conclusions.

USDJPY - The Yen also gained but has since consolidated after reaching its August 26 low. Market expectations suggest the Yen could drop further, potentially reaching its August 5 low. With current price action, the price is hovering around 143.442 and appears to be breaking below it gradually with minimal movement.

USDCHF - The Franc has strengthened as markets shift to safer alternatives. We expect further selling pressure as traders remain uncertain about the broader economic outlook.

USDCAD - The Loonie has consolidated after showing strength. The current structure indicates a continuation of the sell-off, with the price forming a lower high. We anticipate the price to reach 1.34803 and potentially trade below this level.