Today's Financial Forecast

Market Overview

Traders brace for heavy data reporting this week, especially the Non-farm payrolls report coming out this Friday. The result may change the market's bias on how much the FED will cut rates. If payrolls come out lower than expected, we may see traders pricing in an increased chance of a 50 bps rate cut.

Traders have raised the odds of a 50 basis point (bp) Federal Reserve interest rate cut on Sept. 18 to 38% from 30% a day earlier, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

"Markets are nervous ahead of Friday's very important non-farm payroll report, which most market participants acknowledge will be a significant factor, at the very least, in whether the Fed cuts by 25 or 50," said Gavin Friend, senior markets strategist at National Australia Bank.

"All those asset moves point to a risk-off view and a bias for safe havens, with investors stepping back a bit."

MARKET ANALYSIS

GOLD - GOLD pushed lower after yesterday’s trading, finding traction as traders wait for further data to be released this week. We still expect a bullish GOLD market, but we anticipate that the consolidation will last longer in the near term.

SILVER - SILVER has gone lower toward 27.725, and we expect a probable sell-off in the coming days as the SHS formation nears completion. We expect one more push down, possibly under 27.725, before the reversal up toward our expectations of a bullish market.

DXY - The dollar is currently consolidating but gained a bit after a good ISM Manufacturing PMI. We expect further volatility in the market after the data release later this week.

GBPUSD - The pound holds steady, indicating that traders are waiting for further news. No further analysis is provided as we await more data.

AUDUSD - Risk-on assets have lost gains as traders move to safer alternatives ahead of September rate cuts. We continue to anticipate further growth in the markets. Prices are now between 0.67142 and 0.66541. There is a high probability of further price declines, but we also see the possibility of consolidated price trading in anticipation of data releases this week.

NZDUSD - The Kiwi also took a hit, with prices falling below 0.620886, and may possibly reach 0.61408. We expect further weakness in the market as traders rush out of risk-on assets.

EURUSD - The Euro is trading positively against the dollar, with 1.10361 serving as support. Like the pound, the Euro is holding steady, awaiting more data before prices move further.

USDJPY - The Yen gained strongly after yesterday’s trading, showing strength in safe-haven assets. Currently, prices have returned to trading below 146.512. We expect further strength in the Yen, and despite our previous analysis, we may adapt and change our outlook depending on how the price approaches the bottom we identified.

USDCHF - The Franc is expected to regain strength as traders take a more cautious approach to entering trades. We expect further strength in the chart, especially after the U.S. cuts its rates.

USDCAD - The Loonie is currently trading lower, showing traders exiting the currency. While short-term insecurity toward this currency exists, we expect this market to be bearish or for further strength to emerge. The chances of this are high due to several fundamental indicators. However, the poor relationship with China has damaged global trade, and the slowdown from their side may cause issues with oil demand.