US CPI fell back below 3% after three years; gold surged and then fell!

TOPONE Markets | 2024-08-15 11:39

Abstract：The annual rate of the overall CPI in the United States in July was 2.9%, the first time it has returned to the "2-digit" since March 2021, slightly lower than the expected 3%; the monthly rate rebounded from -0.1% to 0.2% as expected. At the same time, the year-on-year growth rate of the core CPI in July fell to 3.2%, and the month-on-month growth rate rebounded from 0.1% to 0.2% as expected. After the data was released, traders lowered their expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed

Hot spot tracking

The annual rate of the overall CPI in the United States in July was 2.9%, the first time it has returned to the “2-digit” since March 2021, slightly lower than the expected 3%; the monthly rate rebounded from -0.1% to 0.2% as expected. At the same time, the year-on-year growth rate of the core CPI in July fell to 3.2%, and the month-on-month growth rate rebounded from 0.1% to 0.2% as expected. After the data was released, traders lowered their expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month. The decline in CPI leaves enough room for future interest rate cuts in the United States, which is bullish for the US manufacturing industry and bearish for the US dollar.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time since March 2020, and the New Zealand/US dollar plunged 50 points in response. Chairman Orr said that the meeting considered the option of a 50 basis point rate cut. Bearish for the New Zealand dollar.

The U.S. EIA crude oil inventory increased by 1.357 million barrels in the week ending August 9, while the expected decrease was 2.2 million barrels. The decline in EIA inventories is bullish for U.S. oil prices.

Product Hot Comment

Forex

Product	Yesterday's Change	Yesterday's Close	Today's Open
EUR/USD	▲0.18%	1.10118	1.10126
GBP/USD	▼-0.28%	1.28259	1.28295
AUD/USD	▼-0.51%	0.6599	0.65966
USD/JPY	▲0.31%	147.317	147.251
GBP/CAD	▼-0.19%	1.75869	1.75888
NZD/CAD	▼-1.21%	0.82214	0.8227

📝 Review:On Wednesday, the US dollar index reversed in a V-shape after the release of the US July CPI data, recovering almost all of its intraday losses. It finally closed down 0.019% at 102.6. US Treasury yields rose and fell differently. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield fell slightly to 3.84%; the two-year US Treasury yield once tested the 4% mark and finally closed at 3.966%.

🕵️ Operation suggestion:

USD/JPY 147.263 Sell Target Price 146.047

Gold
Product Yesterday's Change Yesterday's Close Today's Open
Gold ▼-0.74% 2447.95 2447.85
Silver ▼-1.07% 27.545 27.532
📝 Review:As the market corrected its over-adjusted expectations of the Federal Reserve's September rate cut, spot gold rose and then fell. It hit a low of 2438.08 and finally closed down 0.69% at $2448.02 per ounce. Spot silver finally closed down 1.04% at $27.57 per ounce.
🕵️ Operation suggestion:
Gold 2452.15 Buy Target Price 2486.07
Crude Oil
Product Yesterday's Change Yesterday's Close Today's Open
WTI Crude Oil ▼-1.52% 76.026 76.03
Brent Crude Oil ▼-1.34% 79.423 79.438
📝 Review:International oil prices fell for the second consecutive trading day as the unexpected increase in U.S. EIA crude oil inventories last week exacerbated traders' concerns about global oil oversupply later this year. WTI crude oil finally closed down 1.82% at $77.15 per barrel; Brent crude oil fell below the 80 mark and finally closed down 1.19% at $79.98 per barrel.
🕵️ Operation suggestion:
WTI Crude Oil 76.019 Sell Target Price 74.241

Product	Yesterday's Change	Yesterday's Close	Today's Open
Gold	▼-0.74%	2447.95	2447.85
Silver	▼-1.07%	27.545	27.532

Product	Yesterday's Change	Yesterday's Close	Today's Open
WTI Crude Oil	▼-1.52%	76.026	76.03
Brent Crude Oil	▼-1.34%	79.423	79.438

Indice

Product	Yesterday's Change	Yesterday's Close	Today's Open
Nasdaq 100	▲0.27%	19056.75	19022.15
Dow Jones	▲0.80%	40071.8	40023.5
S&P 500	▲0.53%	5460.35	5452.45
	▼0.00%	17559.3	17559.3
US Dollar Index	▼-0.02%	102.36	102.38

📝 Review:The three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.6%, the S&P 500 up 0.38%, and the Nasdaq up slightly. Google (GOOG.O) and Intel (INTC.O) fell more than 2%, Nvidia (NVDA.O) rose 1.6%, and Tesla (TSLA.O) fell 3%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed down 1.6%, Alibaba (BABA.N) fell 2%, and Bilibili (BILI.O) fell 6%.

🕵️ Operation suggestion:

Nasdaq 100 19053.750 Buy Target Price 19534.832

Crypto
Product Yesterday's Change Yesterday's Close Today's Open
BitCoin ▼-3.15% 59116.2 58905.5
Ethereum ▼-2.02% 2674.4 2663
Dogecoin ▼-3.35% 0.10274 0.10201
📝 Review:From the overall market trend, the current Bitcoin price is rising strongly, and the bulls have the upper hand. As of the latest trading session, the price of Bitcoin has not yet broken through the key level of $61,000. The data to be released tonight may become a potential factor in pushing the price of Bitcoin above $62,000. Therefore, for investors having a bearish outlook on Bitcoin, it is recommended to consider taking action after the consolidation divergence signal appears on the 4-hour candlestick chart.
🕵️ Operation suggestion:
BitCoin 60663.9 Buy Target Price 62453.3