Today's Market Movers

GOLD - Gold recorded trading lower toward 2365.443 last week but recovered close to the July 19 close, maintaining its bullish momentum and structure. We remain confident in a bullish trend for Gold due to both fundamental and technical factors. We anticipate further buying opportunities and are waiting for a good entry point.

SILVER - Silver is currently at 27.725, experiencing a deeper run than expected. While technical analysis indicates a potential drop toward 25.447 due to the completion of the M formation on the H4 chart, fundamentals suggest a bullish outlook for safe-haven assets and metals. We remain overall bullish on Silver but expect near-term bearish momentum. It's advisable to react to market movements rather than anticipate them.

DXY - The Dollar is showing a very bearish run at the moment and we expect the dollar to drop further as market expectations for a U.S. rate cut this coming September and the following months. The central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week, while markets will look for clues on how aggressively the Fed will cut rates in the coming months.

On Friday, data showed that the headline PCE price index came in line with expectations but the core rates came in slightly higher than forecasts.

Previous data also showed that the US economy expanded faster than expected at 2.8% in the second quarter, led by an acceleration in consumer demand, but remaining below the 2021-2023 average of 3.1%.

Remaining below the average may signify a weaker economy but this data release may also indicate that the economy is still strong in a high-interest environment. While everyone waits for FED decisions and announcements this week, we see the dollar remain stagnant between 104.607 and 104.084—this may continue depending on FED comments with the decision and after this eventful week of multiple data releases. 

GBPUSD - The Pound remains bullish despite a fall last week, indicating a potential retracement toward 1.28508 after a breakout. The strength of the Pound will depend on market outlook regarding FED rate cut expectations in September and the BOE's official bank rate decision. Analysts are divided on the likelihood of a rate cut.

AUDUSD - The Aussie Dollar showed significant weakness, falling sharply to 0.65250. Further weakness is expected, with the Australian CPI data set to be a deciding factor for RBA rate cut expectations.

NZDUSD -The Kiwi has shown consistent weakness, falling through multiple levels of market structure. With a 44% chance of a rate cut by the RBNZ in August, NZD weakness is likely to continue, presenting trading opportunities across multiple pairings.

EURUSD - The Euro remains bullish, trading above 1.08543 with corrective momentum. The outlook depends on CPI data release this week; a stronger-than-expected CPI could reinforce the bullish trend.

USDJPY - The Yen has recovered significantly, and analysts expect a rate hike on Wednesday. We are looking for opportunities to sell, anticipating continued strength for the Yen in the market.

USDCHF -The market has continued to find a bearish momentum even after last weeks trading, recovering slightly during the market close in a corrective nature. We continue to watch how this price will run but expect a bearish continuation.

USDCAD - The Canadian Dollar is weak after the BoC cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%. The central bank is focusing on boosting the economy rather than suppressing inflation, raising prospects of additional easing in the coming months. Investors see a 70% chance of a rate cut at the next policy announcement in September.

COT REPORT ANALYSIS:

CAD - Weak (5/5)

CHF - WEAK (3/5)

GBP - STRONG (5/5)

JPY - STRONG (3/5)

EUR - STRONG (5/5)

AUD - WEAK (5/5)

NZD - WEAK (4/5)

USD - STRONG (4/5)

SILVER - STRONG (2/5)

GOLD - STRONG (3/5)