Global Market Insights: Key Events and Economic Analysis Part 2

8

Singapore-listed Yoma Strategic Holdings Ltd.'s stock plummeted 22%, the biggest drop since February 2021. The company announced that its chairman, Serge Pun, is cooperating with Myanmar authorities (indicating potential issues with Myanmar property investments and the possibility of the CEO not returning).

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Increased corporate instability could weaken the SGD.

FX Pair:USD/SGD, EUR/SGD, GBP/SGD

Impact on Shares:

Singapore Market: Negative impact on Yoma Strategic Holdings and related stocks.

Companies:Yoma Strategic Holdings Ltd. (YOMA.SI)

9

X Corp. (formerly Twitter) and its owner Elon Musk won a lawsuit over the firing of thousands of employees after acquiring the social media platform in October 2022. The lawsuit alleged that X Corp. and Musk owed severance pay of at least $500 million to around 6,000 terminated employees under the Federal Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA). The plaintiffs, the company's former global head of compensation and benefits and another former manager, claimed that employees received only one month's pay as severance.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Positive legal outcome could stabilize the USD.

FX Pair:EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD

Impact on Shares:

US Tech Market: Positive impact on X Corp. and related tech stocks.

Companies:X Corp. (formerly Twitter), Tesla (TSLA), SpaceX (private)

10

Global regulators are intensifying scrutiny of the complex business of offshore pension management, potentially putting millions of expatriates' retirement savings at risk. Many expatriates work in financial centers around the world, accumulating significant assets and pensions. As they move between countries, transferring these funds becomes expensive and risky.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Increased regulatory scrutiny could weaken the USD.

FX Pair:EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD

Impact on Shares:

Global Financial Market: Negative impact on financial sector stocks.

Companies:Major global financial institutions

11

European Central Bank Governing Council member Fabio Panetta stated that there should not be excessive concern over stubborn service sector inflation and still strong wage growth. Speaking at the annual meeting of the Bank of Italy, he noted that while concerns about rising service prices are not unfounded, they should be viewed in a different context as service prices behave differently from goods prices (hinting at the possibility of ignoring inflation for continuous rate cuts).

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Continued dovish stance could weaken the EUR.

FX Pair:EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP

Impact on Shares:

European Market: Potential positive impact on market sentiment due to continued monetary easing.

Companies:Major European firms

12

Due to cold weather in June, UK consumer spending on clothing significantly decreased, another sign of weak economic growth caused by poor weather conditions. Barclays Bank reported that weak retail sales last month led to a 0.6% year-on-year decline in card spending, the first drop since the COVID-19 lockdown in early 2021. The British Retail Consortium (BRC) and KPMG reported that total retail sales fell 0.2% in June, in contrast to a 4.9% annual growth in the same month last year.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Weak economic growth could weaken the GBP.

FX Pair:GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY

Impact on Shares:

UK Market: Negative impact on retail sector stocks.

Companies:Marks & Spencer (MKS.L), Next plc (NXT.L)

13

Insiders attending the Bank of Japan market participants' hearing revealed that Japan's largest banks are calling for the central bank to significantly reduce its monthly bond purchases (yield curve control).

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Potential reduction in bond purchases could strengthen the JPY.

FX Pair:USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY

Impact on Shares:

Japanese Market: Positive impact on financial sector stocks.

Companies:Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306.T), Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316.T)

14

A survey by National Australia Bank (NAB) showed that business confidence jumped 6 points to 4 in June, the highest level since early 2023. However, another survey by Westpac showed that consumer confidence fell 1.1% to 82.7 in July, with pessimists far outnumbering optimists. The index has been below 100 since March 2022.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Mixed economic signals could lead to AUD volatility.

FX Pair:AUD/USD, EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD

Impact on Shares:

Australian Market: Mixed impact on business and consumer sector stocks.

Companies:National Australia Bank (NAB.AX), Westpac Banking Corp (WBC.AX)

15

NATO allies have pledged to provide Ukraine with five long-range air defense systems as part of new support commitments, despite leaders failing to offer a pathway for Ukraine to join NATO. New assessments indicate that the conflict with Russia is heading towards an indefinite stalemate.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Continued geopolitical tensions could strengthen the USD as a safe-haven currency.

FX Pair:EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD

Impact on Shares:

Global Market: Negative impact on market sentiment.

Companies:Defense sector stocks, Lockheed Martin (LMT), Northrop Grumman (NOC)