Hot Economic Data Day

Market Overview

Yesterday, the FED chairman Powell testified with his take on the current economy and the chance for rate cuts. Fed Chair Powell said “more good data” would strengthen confidence that inflation is moving down toward the Fed's 2% target and recent readings point to “modest further progress” on prices. He added that the labor market is strong but not overheated, and easing too soon and too much could harm inflation progress.

The markets are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 5% for the July 30-31 FOMC meeting and 71% for the following meeting on Sep 17-18.

GOLD - Gold prices remain steady as the market eagerly awaits the US inflation rates and the Fed's decision on rate cuts. Gold is currently trading within the range of 2365.443 and 2332.174. Despite briefly rising above resistance yesterday, the price returned to this boundary. Analysts expect the final decision on rate cuts in September, which could significantly impact gold prices.

SILVER - Silver also faced resistance and a lack of volume following Powell's testimony, which boosted Treasury yields and made it challenging for precious metals to gain momentum. However, silver is finding support at 30.668, indicating a potential bullish trend if the support holds.

DXY -The dollar showed slight recovery after Powell's testimony, rising above 105.071 but subsequently returning to the range. The overall bearish trend remains intact, and the market is watching for further price movements.

GBPUSD -The Pound lost strength, trading back into 1.27938. Two scenarios could play out: a decline towards 1.26487 or a rally to break above 1.28508 following a technical correction. Further price confirmations are needed before making aggressive moves.

AUDUSD -The Aussie Dollar continues to show strength, finding consolidation where the Pound found weakness. The AUDUSD is respecting bullish structures, with support at 0.67142. We expect the AUDUSD to rise, contingent on continued positive market conditions.

NZDUSD -The NZD is expected to gain strength if the Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintains the current cash rates, which should bolster the currency against others. We await the rate decision and subsequent market reactions.

EURUSD - The Euro is consolidating amid political uncertainty in France, with the price trading within the range of 1.08048 and 1.08543. Investors are cautious, weighing whether to invest in the US or Europe, given the prevailing uncertainties.

USDJPY - The Yen reacted quickly to Powell's news, losing ground against the dollar and trading above 161.105. We continue to monitor how the price will move from here.

USDCHF -The CHF has gained against the dollar, trading below 0.90054, even after recent rate cuts. The overall market direction appears bearish, and we expect further declines if the US proceeds with rate cuts.

USDCAD - The Canadian Dollar is consolidating between 1.36612 and 1.36328, with a 64% chance of rate cuts expected on July 24. We anticipate the price to remain within this range until the rate decision provides a clearer market direction.