Key Economic Indicators Today

Market Overview

Global stocks rose while U.S. Treasury yields dipped on Friday after highly anticipated jobs data boosted market expectations of a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut. U.S. job growth slowed to a still-healthy pace in June, with unemployment rising to 4.1%, indicating that the Fed could begin cutting rates as inflation slows.

“Our overall thesis for the economy right now is one that‘s cooling but not weak,” said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services in Atlanta. “I think this report confirmed this but also I think it is the 4% plus unemployment rate that will get the Fed’s attention and probably provide them flexibility likely to start reducing rates. We think its likely September,” he added.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.17% to 39,375.87. The S&P 500 gained 0.54% to 5,567.19. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.90% to 18,352.76

Despite market expectations, President Biden remains in the race amid widespread calls for a younger leader. A recent poll commissioned by the Democrats revealed a significant decline in Bidens popularity in major states. The upcoming U.S. presidential election and the French election are crucial events that could reshape global markets and geopolitics.

In France, tensions rise as the second round of polling began yesterday, with the far-right party surging in the first round—a first since World War II. Opinion polls show Marine Le Pens rally leading, and several party leaders have withdrawn to block the far-right's win. This political shift has triggered massive protests across France.

In the Middle East, Israel continues its strikes on Gaza amid efforts for a ceasefire. Hamas has accepted a U.S. proposal for ceasefire talks, seeking a permanent ceasefire. Israel mentioned that 'gaps' remain in the talks but has sent the Mossad chief to Qatar for further negotiations.

Given the geopolitical and political uncertainties, we expect a surge in demand for precious metals and minerals, growth in alternative energies, and higher demand for oil. Additionally, we are monitoring the impact of Storm Beryl, the earliest category-five Atlantic hurricane recorded, on affected countries and global prices.

GOLD - Gold is lingering at highs, trading between 2365.779 and 2431.705. Increased demand, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and upcoming elections, suggests a bullish trend. However, we advise caution and recommend waiting for a better entry point to avoid chasing the price at a wrong level.

SILVER - Silver is also seeing growth as it remains a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tensions. The price is anticipated to break through 32.518 soon. Again, it's advisable to wait for a more favorable price before entering the market to mitigate risk.

DXY - The dollar is slipping as last Friday's jobs data indicated a slowdown in the economy. Despite some analysts viewing this as a healthy decline, the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming presidential election is driving increased demand for gold and silver. This trend is likely to continue as election-related uncertainties persist.

GBPUSD -The pound is rising against the dollar as investors seek more secure investments in the UK. The price has broken through the top of the range at 1.27938 and is expected to break through 1.28508 soon.

AUDUSD -The Aussie Dollar continues to strengthen, breaking above the range at 0.67142. The bullish trend is expected to persist, supported by the prospect of delayed rate cuts.

NZDUSD - The NZ Dollar, mirroring the Aussie Dollar, is showing signs of bullish demand. While still within the range, the price is expected to move beyond 0.62086, indicating further growth in the market.

EURUSD -The Euro is gaining strength against the dollar despite uncertainties in both the US and Europe. The price is showing a bullish trend but is expected to stay within the range of 1.08950 to 1.06356.

USDJPY -  Analysts are considering a potential trend shift for the Yen. The market is expected to see a decline, especially with anticipated rate hikes from the BoJ and potential rate cuts from the FOMC.

USDCHF - The CHF is weak due to recent rate cuts, but the market is showing signs of a shift in bias. The price is testing 0.88886, and a push below this level could signal a continuation of the decline. Otherwise, consolidation is expected.

USDCAD - The CAD has weakened against the dollar despite soft US data. Prices are currently between 1.36612 and 1.36328. Both currencies are facing challenges, and we will continue to monitor this pair for further developments.

COT Reports Analysis

CAD - Strong (1/5)

CHF - Weak (2/5)

GBP - Strong (1/5)

JPY - Weak (5/5)

EUR - Weak (5/5)

AUD - Strong (3/5)

NZD - Strong (5/5)

USD - Strong (5/5)

GOLD - Strong (3/5)

Silver - Strong (2/5)