Market Commentary for Today

Market Overview

Weak US data suggests rate cuts for this coming September. After data reported a contracting economy, analysts and investors look positively into a rate cut to happen this quarter. 

JOLTS Job Openings showed growth to 8.14M from 7.92M. While the result was more than expected, it is still lower than the June 2021 report, showing that it belongs to the contractionary stage.

As for the ADP Non-Farm Employment, the change showed less than last months 157k and below the forecasted 163k. Data released showed 150k, a big drop from the expected, and is a bad start to this quarter.

More people claimed unemployment from 234k to 238k. 

ISM Services PMI also showed contraction as numbers dropped to 48.8 from last months 53.8. This data absolves the confidence the economy had as the services sector became a driving factor in their economy -- specifically, 78% of U.S. non-agricultural employment and 76% of private sector GDP. 

GOLD -Gold has shown strength, trading towards 2365.443. The start of the quarter looks promising for a bullish structure, supported by positive sentiment regarding potential rate cuts.

SILVER -Silver broke through 29.900 and is trading above this level. We are looking into a bullish structure but await further confirmation to determine where the price might stop or bounce.

DXY -The Dollar Index lost ground following the release of soft data, suggesting further downward movement. While 105.071 holds prices up, the anticipation of rate cuts grows stronger with continued soft data.

GBPUSD -The Pound found strength, bouncing off 1.26487 and climbing towards 1.27938. Uncertainties in the French election are driving demand for the Pound, contributing to its strength.

AUDUSD -The Australian Dollar has found good strength and momentum at the start of the quarter, after finding support at 0.66541. The price is currently at 0.67142 and may continue to break above this structure, trading bullish. We anticipate a bullish trend as rate cuts for the Australian Dollar are not expected until late 2025.

NZDUSD -The New Zealand Dollar has recovered to ranging levels above 0.60847, potentially continuing upwards. We await further price action to confirm a more bullish trend.

EURUSD -The Euro has risen above the trendline, forming bullish structures. Despite respecting the larger M formation from the last quarter, we await further movement to gauge the strength of each economy during their election seasons.

USDJPY - The Yen shows resilience, maintaining prices above 161.105 despite soft data. While rate hikes are anticipated, geopolitical tensions warrant caution in trading the Yen.

USDCHF -The Swiss Franc recovered against the dollar, testing 0.90054. A breakthrough could signal a drop towards previous quarter levels.

USDCAD -The Canadian Dollar showed a significant recovery, dropping below 1.3628. We anticipate a bearish trend but await further price action for confirmation.