Today's analysis: U.S. Jobless Claims High, Gold Faces Resistance at $2350 Amid Economic Data Focus

Product:XAU/USD

Prediction: Decrease

Fundamental Analysis: 

Last week, the number of people in the U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims was the highest since the end of 2021. This means its taking longer for people to find jobs. The U.S. Department of Labor said that as of June 15, about 1.84 million people were still getting these benefits. At the same time, new claims for unemployment benefits dropped to 233k last week, which included the Fourth of July holiday. The market will focus on the core PCE data tomorrow, which is expected to show a drop in the annual core PCE price index from 2.8% in April to 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021.

Technical Analysis: 

The RSI is below the 50 midpoint, indicating that sellers have the upper hand. The next support level for gold is $2300. If it falls below this level, the price may drop to the May 3 low of $2277. On the other hand, if gold rises back to $2350, it will target higher resistance levels like the June 7 high of $2387. If it breaks this resistance, the price will challenge $2400.

Product:EUR/USD

Prediction: Decrease

Fundamental Analysis: 

EUR/USD saw some buying on Thursday but stayed around the $1.0700 level as traders were confused before Fridays important US inflation report. However, there was a big drop on Friday morning in Asia, with the pair moving around $1.069. European economic data has been average in the second half of the trading week, so markets are now focusing on the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which will be released today.

Technical Analysis: 

On Thursday, EUR/USD found some buyers and bounced from below $1.0680, rising to the 200-hour EMA of $1.0717 before settling around $1.0700. As of Friday's market session, EUR/USD is stuck in a tight range on the daily charts, moving within a downward channel and staying below the 200-day EMA at $1.0785. The support level is at $1.0667, and the resistance is at $1.07. The RSI is below 50, indicating that the market has selling momentum.

Product: USD/JPY

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis: 

USD/JPY trades around $161.00, the highest level since 1986, during the Asian session on Friday. In Tokyo, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose to 2.3% in June, up from 2.2% previously. Core Tokyo CPI inflation, which excludes food prices, also increased to 2.1% from 1.9%, higher than the market's expected 2.0%. The weak inflation data has caused the Yen to lose value, boosting the USD/JPY exchange rate.

Technical Analysis: 

The USD/JPY pair is showing signs of overheating. The RSI on the daily chart suggests it's nearing overbought territory. The pair continues to rise towards the important level of $160, where Japanese authorities intervened before. Immediate reactions may not occur, as authorities might wait for US data on Thursday and Friday before considering any actions. If US data strengthens, the pair could test up to $163.00. On the downside, the pivotal support remains at $151.95, which will be crucial to monitor.

Product:BTC/USD

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis: 

Bitcoin's recovery in price is the same as the resurgence in inflows to US Bitcoin spot ETFs. As of June 26, these funds managed around $52.61 billion worth of Bitcoin, up from $47 billion in early May. Data shows that after seven consecutive days of outflows, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw positive net inflows over the past two days, with $31 million and $21.3 million recorded on June 25 and 26 respectively.

Technical Analysis: 

BTC faced resistance at the lower edge of the descending wedge it broke on Wednesday. Since then, it has dropped by about 1.75%, trading around $60,777. If the $62,000 level continues to hold as resistance, BTC might decrease by around 4% to test its weekly support around $58,375.

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