Today's analysis: USDJPY Poised for Decline Despite Recent Upsurge; Mixed BOJ Signals

Product: XAU/USD

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis: 

Gold prices reversed course on Friday, moving down more than 1.70%. Economic data from the United States (US) spurred investors' reaction to pricing out fewer interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) due to the solid state of the economy. The XAU/USD trades at $2,317, below its opening price after hitting a daily high of $2,368.

The US economy continued to give mixed signals regarding its robustness. S&P Global revealed June‘s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) readings, which exceeded estimates and topped May’s data. However, the US housing sector continued to deteriorate after Existing Home Sales for May missed the mark and fell compared to Aprils data.

Technical Analysis: 

From a technical perspective, the overnight sustained close above the 50-day SMA could be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. This, along with the fact that oscillators on the daily chart have again started gaining positive traction, supports prospects for a further appreciating move. Hence, a subsequent move towards testing the next relevant hurdle, near the $2,378-2380 region, looks like a distinct possibility. The Gold price could eventually aim to reclaim the $2,400 round-figure mark.

Product: EUR/USD

Prediction: Decrease

Fundamental Analysis: 

The Bank of England's (BoE) dovish outlook on Thursday lifted bets for an interest rate cut in August. Furthermore, the European Central Bank (ECB) earlier this month decided to lower borrowing costs and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) also delivered its second rate cut of 2024 on Thursday. This, along with a sustained breakout through the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on Thursday, favours bearish traders that would test its support.

Technical Analysis: 

The EURUSD price managed to touch our first waited target of 200 MA at 1.0675$, and we suggest the continuation of the bearish bias to surpass this level and achieve additional negative targets that reach 1.0600$, supported by the negative pressure formed by the EMA50.

Therefore, the bearish trend scenario will remain valid and active unless breaching 1.0795$ and holding above it.

Product: USD/JPY

Prediction: Decrease

Fundamental Analysis: 

Bank of Japan board members noted that high costs of living are hurting consumer spending but they appeared divided over how to proceed with another rate hike as part of its policy normalisation, with one member calling for an early action while others urging caution, according to the summary of the banks June 13-14 meeting released Monday.

One of the nine members said that “upside risks to prices have become more noticeable” and that those risks “have affected consumer sentiment.” Ahead of the next meeting, the member urged the board to monitor data closely and “raise the policy interest rate not too late” as the likelihood of achieving the 2% price stability target increases.

Technical Analysis: 

The USDJPY price rallied upwards clearly yesterday to surpass our first waited target at 158.40 and touch the 159.00 barrier, which supports the continuation of the expected bullish trend on the intraday and short-term basis, waiting for the continuation of the rise to visit 160.20 that represents our next main target. 

Product:BTC/USD

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis: 

Ethereum gas prices, Bitcoin miner revenue both approach record lows. Early doubts about Bitcoin‘s technical foundations have been dispelled. Satoshi Nakamoto’s engineering decisions have proven effective, including the one-megabyte block size and ten-minute block frequency. The network has mined over 846,448 blocks without a critical hack, showcasing its resilience and security. Regulatory acceptance, institutional endorsements and adoption by nation states should prove to the public this as a legitimate asset.

Technical Analysis: 

Bitcoin has been treading water for the last three weeks with little to suggest either a move higher or lower. The daily BTC/USD chart looks positive with all three simple moving averages in a bullish set-up and supporting a move higher. Based on the fibonacci level, we see the price falling past 0.5 and testing the support level of 0.382. We believe this is a sign of a recent price correction and price should look to increase in the near future.

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