Today's Economic News

Market Overview

The CPI released data lower than expected at 0.3% on an m/m basis below the expected 0.4%, indicating a potential retracement of inflation easing back to normalcy towards the end of this quarter. 

The CPI report raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates two times this year.

The Dow and S&P 500 registered record closing highs for the first time since March 28 and the Nasdaq posted a record closing high for the second session in a row. Global equities are rising with the Russel and US30 except for a slowdown with the Dow but, it is still relatively on the higher side since its drop. 

The US treasury yields fell below 4.4%, reaching to 4.340%. 

Oil creeping and possibly moving outside of the range toward the bullish move, giving us a good point of entry today. Oil prices are now at around $79/bbl and still moving up.

CPI “was a good report,” said Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and adviser at Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut.

“As we've been talking about, progress is being made on the inflation front, but it is uneven. So I don't think this changes the Fed's trajectory or plan, but it should give investors and consumers confidence that we're moving in the right direction,” Pursche added.

Market confidence spurred by the CPI print is a good indicator for a price move out of ranges formed in the previous weeks. This may also entail for a set of new positions opening for the coming COT report next week, but a delayed report on positioning for the report coming in this week. 

GOLD - Gold has risen and is looking positively bullish. Against other analysts call that GOLD will not be helpful since it is now at overvalued levels, we continue to view this market to rise. We see the markets easily breaking through 2392.470.

SILVER -Silver is now about to touch our 29.900 structure and is only expected to rise further. We continue to call the prices bullish and we see this market continuously going up.

DXY -With the strong drop and volume in the drop, DXY opened with a gap in the market. There is a potential for the prices to fill up the gap before a continuation of the drop. However, this may seem unlikely as the volume and momentum show strongly for the bears. We continue to call this bearish.

GBPUSD -Despite other analysts‘ call that GBP had a ’fake rise, our bias and call for GBP movement pushed through, showing that the collection of orders and market comfort in the range has allowed for the market to push prices upward, allowing a strong break beyond the anchor point of the range at 1.26487 and will push toward 1.27938.

AUDUSD -We see a strong rejection on the low after a whipsaw candle. Now, the price is settling above 0.66145 after a good collection of orders below it. We continue to view this pair to be bullish.

NZDUSD -The NZD is on a big run with no relevant structure on its path, yet. We expect this strong momentum up to continue and may present an opportunity for a re-entry soon. Until then, we continue to call this market bullish.

EURUSD -With the momentum the prices were going for with EUR, the break through the daily down trendline was easily achieved. We now wait to see if prices will stay comfortable at these levels and continue to find relevant structure and volume to push it up. But, as the prices stand, we call this market to continue its bullish trend.

USDJPY -The natural easing of US strength allowed for the Yen to gain back strength against the greenback, lowering the chances of further BoJ intervention in the markets. It has also followed through our callout from yesterday that markets will likely drop and that the bears will push prices down. From hereon, we can look into sell with the Yen as the likelihood of another intervention has dropped. However, continue to remain prudent as our call from yesterday that BoJ intervention will likely make use of this opportunity to drastically drop prices may still happen.

USDCHF - This market has shown us that it is comfortable outside of the daily upward channel and is now moving beyond 0.90054. We continue to call this market bearish as it is obvious that the momentum and volume are leaning toward the market direction.

USDCAD - This market has shown a clearer move toward the downside and has broken out of 1.36052, allowing for a good entry point. We call for this market to be bearish as there is a clear indication of volume and momentum moving toward the bears for this market.