Today's Economic News

General Market Overview

Major participants of the GOLD rally are Central Banks increasing their gold holdings. This action suggests a want to diversify from the dollar. 

US Core PCE from last Friday came out as forecasted, a 0.3% increase. There was also a better result with Personal spending as data released at 0.8% from the expected 0.6% showing an increase in consumer spending. 

We see the US500 recovering from the fall as the price closed slightly below 5100. The Dow Jones and the Russel are also showing promise to return on their upward momentum. However, it is still early to say. 

The US Treasury Yields maintain their upward trend.

The crude oil and Brent crude oil maintain their upward trend.

This weeks economic calendar includes Euro Area and German GDP and inflation releases, US ISM reports, the monthly US Jobs Report, and the latest FOMC monetary policy decision.

The current calm of the markets cannot be taken for granted as Geopolitical risks in the Middle East wave from the backend as Israel mentions further retribution. 

GOLD - With the identification of the COT report, we call for prices for GOLD to go up within the week. As the price fluctuated between 2333.715 and 2354.470 last week, it failed to reach lower than Last Tuesday's low. A break beyond 2354.470 cam call price to test 2392.470. 

SILVER - Silver persists to stay above 27.095 but ranges below 27.552 after last weeks failure to continue its break above. We still view silver to be bullish with the possibility to test the line below before a rise at 25.793. However, a continuation up will need to break 28.073 before an expectation to run to 29.900. It is important to note that a strong reading on the COT means that investor confidence is on a bullish silver. 

DXY - DXY persisted after last weeks failure to break below 105.523. While the chart can be seen to range, it is seen to create new lower highs and lower lows. A break below may mean a continuation of the drop, and a break above may mean a continuation of the overall trend of the market.

GBPUSD - With the price of the market returning to the daily range, of 1.25019, we see the price testing the middle point of the range and breaking beyond 1.25740. A consolidation below the range or on the range may mean a filling up of orders to continue the trend downward. A weak reading into the GBP COT report means a losing GBP. However, if GBP pushes to win, it means that USD strength despite a persistent DXY, is lowering against other currencies showing us that investor confidence and market sentiment on the said country is lowering.

AUDUSD  - AUD strength is pushing to continue as COT reports read a strengthening currency. We may see the price consolidate for a while before continuing its push beyond the 0.65618. We expect the price to go beyond the 0.66145 and this successful break may cause a break out of the squeeze of the Daily structures. However, a break below 0.64801 may call for a continuation toward the monthly structure at 0.63407.

NZDUSD - COT report reading the NZD negatively. While we see the price completing the formation, without a break above 0.59796, we cannot call this to continue upward as we see a clear downward trend. What is happening now may be a correction phase of the smaller timeframe. However, we need to wait for the price to break below 0.59288 and 0.58984 before we see a continuation of the bearish run.

EURUSD - Despite EURs strong run, we can still find the pair to be in an overall bearish run. This momentum upward can be a part of a correction. A break below 1.06660 may call for the price to continue selling, while a break beyond 1.07549 may call the price to test the trendline.

USDJPY -BoJ did not intervene. COT reads a weak Yen as the price is aggressively pushed upward. We now see the price to continue upward and toward 161.105. The weakening yen may not necessarily turn badly for the Japanese and may, instead, improve their living conditions as core inflation is not rising. 

USDCHF -No definite call on this pair as the price consolidates within the upward channel, maintaining our stance on the bullish trend. COT reads into a weaker CHF.

USDCAD - While COT reads a weak CAD, we can see the USD losing against it. We may expect the price to fall toward 1.35762 and beyond it if it continues to push below where it is. However, during the start of the week, we may expect one of two things, a consolidation to collect orders or a parabolic run downward. It is important to review the trade as a potential shift may happen in the middle of the week and a continuation upward may also occur as the higher timeframe is still in an upward trend. However, it is important to note, as well, that 1.38402 is the ceiling of the daily range, making a continuation downward most likely. This may call for CAD pairs other than the USD that are weaker against the dollar to be a potential trade.

REMINDER:

Geopolitical talks of conflict may cause dramatic shifts in market movements. During such conditions when a massive change may occur at any given moment, we encourage controlling your risks and choosing your portfolio carefully.

COT REPORTS Strength Analysis

CAD - Weak (4/5)

CHF - Weak (5/5)

GBP - Weak (5/5)

JPY - Weak (5/5)

EUR - Weak (4/5)

AUD - Strong (2/5)

NZD - Weak (5/5)

USD - Mixed

Silver  - Strong (5/5)

GOLD - Strong (5/5)