Today's Market Updates

General Market Overview with the latest news:

We are looking into 10-year yields of bonds rising as it is up by about 18 basis points at the end of the market yesterday, hovering at near highs. Oil prices sharply rising as Israel is preparing for an imminent retaliatory strike coming from Iran. Inflation not looking like what the FED has expected. But the FED still holds confidence in the economys sustainable and, I quote, “bumpy road into 2%.”

Currently, the VIX is up by 5.47% and CPI by 3.5%, CPI at ten percentage points above expected, as people question if the FED still has control over inflation as they face a potential 1970s repeat. Not much green on the NASDAQ100 as it is down by 0.84% as we see it at 16,170.36 today from the 16,306.64 close of yesterday. The US500 closed at -0.95%. The stocks are humbling.

Investors still not looking into a significant rate cut anytime this year. The June cuts are now cut off as we see the third consecutive 0.4% rise in Core CPI, they may push into the last quarter of this year, mainly in September at the earliest, and possibly push off rate reductions to next year.

By the end of 2024, the FED dot plot is projected to be in the range of 4.50-4.75%. In 2025, the median fed funds rate projection is expected to fall to 3.50-3.75%, indicating 100 basis points worth of cuts. This is followed by another 75 basis points of cuts in 2026, which would reduce the fed funds target rate range to 2.75-3.00%. It is important to note that the longer the projection, the harder it is to accurately determine the projections.

Investors still look into the AI boom as the trend reigns strongly in the markets, confidently seeing AI as ‘real’ and inflicting a positive impact on the economy in the longer run after a volatile entry in the early stages.

GOLD - In the perspective of the markets, we can see majors going down against the USD as inflation holds the strength of the currency higher, but weaker against gold as people lose confidence in the currency. We can see that Gold has cleanly broken through our projected supply zone at 2227.561 and 2261.156 after a short slowdown at expected levels. We may see another slowdown at our next projected supply zone at 2249.620 and 2497.026 as shown in the chart.

SILVER - We can see silver also gaining strength in perspective to the Dollar. After a clear break through the middle point of the monthly range, prices still looking into testing the monthly structure at 29.900

DXY - The USD has shown a significant increase in strength as inflation still shows a strength in their economy. However, a higher level in their VIX and an above-expectedCPI do not initiate confidence in their people. With this being the case, we can expect the USD to overpower other currencies as we see a breakthrough the daily structure at 104.607. At this point in the market, we may see a potential break beyond the daily structure at 106.848 and a test of the yearly structure at 107.834.

GBP/USD - After markets have bounced off the monthly structure at 1.28505, we see prices still ranging within the area of 1.27938 and 1.25008 with the middle proving to be an effective anchor point. This aggressivepush-downsuggests a strong downward test into the 1.25008 structure before proving any notable breaks. We should readyourselves for this move before the market closestomorrow and see how it will play out during the rest of the day.

AUD/USD - With the price seemingly holding onto the 0.65250 daily structure, we see it currently moving into a potential test of the daily structure at 0.64427 after a clear break of the previous upward trendline. We can also look forward to a potential test into the monthly structure of 0.63407 upon a successful break out of the daily structure.

NZD/USD - After a successful bounce off the daily structure at 0.60847, we can see the price aggressively move into the monthly structure at 0.59796 as we expected. We can expect to see a potential break out of this structure and into the daily structure of 0.58856.

EUR/USD - Prices still squeezing the EURUSD as it respects the trendline signifying lower highs and a potential break lower into the daily structure at 1.04672. While markets may slow down as markets close are creeping closer, we can still expect prices to possibly move aggressively into said areas.

USD/JPY - From a tight hold of the prices between the daily structures at 151.700 and 150.883, this breakthrough may signify a test into a yearly structure at 161.105. Though there is potential for a slowdown to happen for a pullback, there is also a chance for the pair to experience a parabolic movement higher.

USD/CHF - The upward channel still looking positively into the market as the prices seem to test into the daily structure at 0.92248.

USD/CAD - As markets move inside the Monthly range, price played in between market structures and the middle point of the range at 1.35762. After an expected break through this structure, we can see the price reaching for the daily structure at 1.37881.