MHMarkets：March 18, 2024 Economic Highlights

Date: March 18, 2024

Economic Highlights (GMT + 8)

No high-impact events

Market Overview

Global Market Recap

Last Friday, the U.S. dollar index rose due to higher-than-expected U.S. February PPI data, closing up 0.071% at 103.44. U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the benchmark 10-year yield achieving six consecutive gains, closing at 4.3080%; the sensitive 2-year yield closed at 4.7320%.

Bitcoin approached the 65,000 mark last Friday, eventually closing at $68,137.80.

Spot gold briefly returned to above the 2170 level, but fell due to the strengthening U.S. dollar index, closing down 0.89% at $2155.91 an ounce; spot silver continued to strengthen, crossing the $25 mark and closing up 1.5% at $25.19 an ounce.

WTI crude oil closed almost flat, down 0.04% at $80.97 a barrel; Brent crude oil rose 0.22% to $85.26 a barrel, as IEA forecasts a slight deficit in oil supply and demand in 2024.

U.S. stock indices all fell, with the Dow down 0.49%, the S&P 500 down 0.65%, and the Nasdaq down 0.96%. Amazon (AMZN.O) fell 2.42%, Microsoft (MSFT.O) fell 2.07%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.41%, with Futu Holdings (FUTU.O) falling nearly 4%, and Full Truck Alliance (YMM.N) falling nearly 3%.

European stock indices generally fell, with Germany's DAX30 down 0.03%, the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.2%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.14%.

Hong Kong stocks opened lower and continued to decline throughout the day, narrowing losses towards the close. The Hang Seng Index fell 1.42%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.5%. At close, the total turnover of the Hang Seng Index was HK$139.086 billion. In the market, most sectors fell, with technology stocks weakening, while gold stocks, education stocks, and oil & gas equipment stocks led the gains. Among individual stocks, BAIC Motor (01958.HK) rose 6.85%, Zhihu (02390.HK) rose 6.55%, WuXi AppTec (02359.HK) fell 8.79%, Rongxin China (03301.HK) fell 5.26%, and Bilibili (09626.HK) fell 5.2%.

A-shares: The Shanghai Index fluctuated narrowly in the morning, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index weakened, at one point falling more than 1%. In the afternoon, the indices rebounded, turning positive across the board. At close, the Shanghai Index was up 0.54%, the Shenzhen Component Index was up 0.60%, and the ChiNext Index was up 0.06%. In the market, automotive dismantling concept stocks surged, with several stocks hitting the upper limit. Humanoid robot, cultivated diamond, organosilicon, non-ferrous metals, and communication equipment sectors led the gains, while coal, hotels and restaurants, home appliances, Sora concept, and real estate sectors led the declines. Northbound funds net bought over 10 billion yuan.

Market Highlights:

· Among the Federal Reserve Chair candidates recommended by Trump's economic advisors, Powell is not included.

· Japan's largest union secures the biggest total wage increase in 30 years.

· Japanese media: The Bank of Japan is ready to end its negative interest rate policy this week.

· Israeli Prime Minister: The Israeli military may attack Rafah in a few weeks.

· Putin: Ready for Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks during the Olympics.

· People's Bank of China: Broad money supply grows by 8.7% year-over-year.

· The Securities Regulatory Commission releases four policy documents focusing on “strengthening and strictness.”

Institutional Views:

1. Bank of America (BofA)

Bank of America maintains a positive view on the Euro's prospects against the US dollar, expecting the recent upward trend to persist. The forecasted alignment in economic growth between the US and the Eurozone, coupled with anticipated similar policy shifts by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, underpins BofA's optimistic stance on the EUR/USD pair for the medium to long term.

2. ANZ

Even amid the difficulties brought by consistently high gold prices, physical demand for gold has impressively held up, especially in key markets like China and India. ANZ points out that this resilience underscores the enduring attractiveness and perceived value of gold as an investment. However, for substantial growth in demand to occur, there might need to be a significant shift in price trends. Demand is anticipated to stay steady, illustrating the equilibrium between consumers' desire to preserve value and their sensitivity to price changes.