MHMarkets：February 20, 2024 Economic Highlights

Date: February 20, 2024

Economic Highlights (GMT + 8)

8:30am

AUDMonetary Policy Meeting Minutes

9:30pm

CADCPI m/m

CADMedian CPI y/y

CADTrimmed CPI y/y

Market Overview

Global Market Recap

On Monday, the U.S. Dollar Index edged up to a daily high of 104.37 during the American session before paring its gains, eventually closing slightly lower at 104.25. The U.S. bond market was closed.

Spot gold continued its rebound from the previous Friday, oscillating near the $2020 level throughout the day and ultimately closing up 0.23% at $2017.89 per ounce. Spot silver, after facing a sharp sell-off before the Asian market opened, plunged from its high and ended down 1.87% at $22.98 per ounce.

As traders weighed the ongoing tensions in the Middle East against a potentially weakening demand outlook, international crude oil prices fluctuated within a range, hovering near a three-week high. WTI crude oil closed up 0.02% at $78.18 per barrel, while Brent crude oil closed up 0.07% at $83.38 per barrel.

U.S. stock markets were closed for Presidents' Day.

European stock indices had a mixed performance, with Germany's DAX30 index closing down 0.15%, the UK's FTSE 100 index closing up 0.22%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index closing down 0.05%.

Hong Kong stocks opened lower and continued to decline throughout the day, starting at 16,334 points and at one point falling as much as 201 points to a low of 16,137 points, hovering near the 50-day moving average. By the close, the Hang Seng Index was down 1.13%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index was down 2.68%, with a total trading volume of 82 billion Hong Kong dollars. In the market, leisure and entertainment, coal, oil, and precious metals sectors were strong, with the three major oil companies performing strongly throughout the day; apparel, new energy materials, pharmaceutical distribution, and technology stocks were among the biggest losers. In individual stocks, Li Ning (02331.HK) fell more than 8.5%, JD Health (06618.HK) nearly 7%, and Oriental Selection (01797.HK) more than 5%; while Zijin Mining (02899.HK) rose more than 5%, China Shenhua (01088.HK) more than 4%, and CNOOC (00883.HK) more than 3%, with WuXi AppTec (02359.HK), China Unicom (00762.HK), and China Hongqiao (01378.HK) all gaining more than 2.5%.

China's three major stock indices all moved higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.56%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.93%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.13% by the close. In the market, multimodal AI concepts surged, with Industrial Fulian and nearly ten other stocks hitting the 20% daily limit; CPO concepts also performed strongly, with Tianfu Communication, Zhongji XuChuang, Xinyi Sheng, and several other stocks hitting the 20% daily limit; the education sector saw significant gains, with almost ten stocks reaching the daily limit. Computer equipment, real estate, media and entertainment, and computing power sectors were up, while aquaculture and securities sectors saw pullbacks. Over 4200 stocks advanced in the market, with total trading volume exceeding 950 billion yuan.

Market Highlights:

· Houthi Rebels Attack More British and American Ships

· The German Central Bank: German Economy May Enter a Technical Recession

· AI Company Dark Side of the Moon Completes a New Financing Round of Over $1 Billion

· BYD's New Car Breaks into the 70,000 Price Range

Institutional Views:

1. RBC Economics

RBC Economics views the early 2024 inflation trends in Canada as indicative of a gradual move towards the central bank's inflation target, albeit with persistent underlying pressures.

2. ING

According to ING, inflation data in Canada is anticipated to reveal inflation rates slightly above 3%. While this level is not expected to prompt an immediate rate cut by the Bank of Canada, ING does foresee the initiation of monetary policy easing by the time of the June policy meeting.

3. TDS

According to TDS, CPI inflation is forecasted to slow to 3.2% YoY in January, with core inflation measures showing limited progress towards 2%. The persistence of underlying price pressures might make it challenging for the BoC to deliver a dovish message in March.

4. CIBC

According to CIBC, headline inflation is expected to partially ease in January, but inflation excluding food/energy could accelerate slightly on a YoY basis. The BoC's preferred inflation measures are unlikely to show much improvement.