Abstract:Recap of Global Market Trends and Trading Opportunities
DAILY MARKET NEWSLETTER
February 8, 2024
MARKET WRAP: STOCKS, BONDS, COMMODITIES
On Wednesday, U.S. stocks charged higher, pushing the three major indexes to record closes again. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 156 points (+0.40%) to 38,677, the S&P 500 climbed 40 points (+0.82%) to 4,995, and the Nasdaq 100 was up 182 points (+1.04%) to 17,755.
Technology, consumer cyclicals and industrial stock sectors led the market higher.
Microsoft (MSFT) rose 2.11% to $414.05, and Nvidia (NVDA) climbed 2.75% to $700.99, both marking record closing levels.
Ford Motor (F) gained 6.05%. The major car-maker announced a special dividend of $0.18 per share.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) jumped 7.21%, as the fast-food restaurant chain's quarterly earnings topped expectations.
On the other hand, Snap (SNAP) plummeted 34.61%, the social media's quarterly sales missed expectations.
Also posting lower-than-expected quarterly results, Gilead Sciences (GILD) lost 4.25%, and VF Corp (VFC) slid 9.68%.
Walt Disney (DIS), Fox (FOXA) and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) said they agreed to form a new joint venture on streaming sports. Disney dipped 0.15%, Fox fell 6.48%, and Warner Bros was down 3.18%.
The 10-year Treasury yield gained 2.3 basis points to 4.115%.
European stock indexes closed lower, with the DAX 40 down 0.65%, the CAC 40 down 0.36%, and the FTSE 100 down 0.68%.
U.S. WTI crude-oil futures gained $0.75 (+1.02%) to $74.06 a barrel.
Gold price eased $1 to $2,034 an ounce.
MARKET WRAP: FOREX
The U.S. dollar index dipped to 104.05.
EUR/USD gained 18 pips to 1.0772. Germany's industrial production declined 1.6% on month in December (vs -0.3% expected).
USD/JPY rose 21 pips to 148.15.
GBP/USD climbed 30 pips to 1.2627. In the U.K., the Halifax house price index added 1.3% on month in January (vs +0.5% expected).
AUD/USD eased 5 pips to 0.6518.
USD/CHF climbed 48 pips to 0.8743.
USD/CAD dropped 32 pips to 1.3460. Canada recorded a trade deficit of C$310 million (vs a trade surplus of C$1.8 billion expected), the first trade deficit since September 2023.
Bitcoin eventually broke out its recent trading range, trading 2.5% higher to $44,200.
GBP/USD
Intraday: the upside prevails.
Pivot: 1.2605
Our preference: Long positions above 1.2605 with targets at 1.2645 & 1.2665 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.2605 look for further downside with 1.2585 & 1.2565 as targets.
Comment: The RSI lacks downward momentum.
USD/JPY
Intraday: rebound expected.
Pivot: 147.90
Our preference: Long positions above 147.90 with targets at 148.65 & 148.85 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 147.90 look for further downside with 147.60 & 147.40 as targets.
Comment: The RSI calls for a new upgrade.
EUR/USD
Intraday: further upside.
Pivot: 1.0765
Our preference: Long positions above 1.0765 with targets at 1.0790 & 1.0805 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.0765 look for further downside with 1.0755 & 1.0740 as targets.
Comment: The RSI advocates for further upside.
Dow Jones (CME) (H4)Intraday: the upside prevails.
Pivot: 38650.00
Our preference: Long positions above 38650.00 with targets at 38880.00 & 38950.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 38650.00 look for further downside with 38560.00 & 38480.00 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50%.
Fed Chair Powell signals upcoming rate cuts, driving bond market speculation and influencing global markets. Asian stocks rise, while yen strengthens due to safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, Australia's central bank faces skepticism over its tightening stance.
Global markets are navigating through significant shifts. China intervenes in the bond market to curb speculation, while Japan's Nikkei rebounds after historic losses. Elon Musk's increasing political involvement and General Motors' strategic shifts in China reflect broader economic and geopolitical trends. Rising tensions in the Middle East and U.S. labor market volatility add further complexity, influencing global currencies and stock movements.
Although the market has responded positively to the prospect of Trump's possible re-election, and the Japanese stock market has shown an upward trend as a result, investors should also remain cautious and pay attention to the long-term impact of the election results on global economic policies and market sentiment. As strategist Tomo Kinoshita pointed out, while short-term market dynamics may be closely related to the election results, ultimately, the fundamentals of companies, economic data, an
As we head into the second quarter earnings report season, the U.S. equity market is poised to capture significant attention. Recent geopolitical events, particularly the unconfirmed reports of an explosion in Iran's third-largest city last Friday, have injected volatility into commodities prices and bolstered the appeal of safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar and Japanese Yen.