MHMarkets：November 22, 2023--Fundamental Reminder

19:00 GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders (NOV)

20:30 UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Hunt delivers his autumn budget statement in Parliament

21:30 USDInitial Jobless Claims (NOV /18)

23:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (NOV) &USD1 Year Inflation Expectation (NOV)

23:30 USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (NOV/17)

Markets were expecting an increase of 1.467 million barrels.

MHMarkets Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

The dollar index pared losses on Tuesday as the Fed minutes indicated it would maintain its restrictive policy for a long time. It fell as low as 103.17, its lowest since August 31, before recovering most of its losses and turning higher in the U.S. session to end up 0.16% at 103.60. Treasury yields retreated. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.398%; The yield on the two-year Treasury note, which is more sensitive to the Fed's policy rate, failed to hold above 4.9% and ended at 4.883%.

Spot gold rose sharply during the day, breaking through the $2,000 mark in U.S. trading and reaching an intraday high of $2,007.63, but failed to hold ground and ended up 1.02% at $1,998.31 an ounce. Spot silver briefly crossed the $24 mark during the day, but failed to hold ground and ended up 1.3% at $23.74 an ounce.

The two oil prices took a breather after rising for two days. WTI crude oil held above $77 and finally settled up 0.22% at $77.78 per barrel; Brent crude recovered some losses and turned higher in U.S. trading, ending up 0.55% at $82.42 a barrel.

The three major U.S. stock indexes closed down collectively, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.18%, the Nasdaq down 0.59% and the S&P 500 down 0.2%. Tesla (TSLA.O) closed up more than 2%, while Nvidia (NVDA.O) and Microsoft (MSFT.O) fell 1%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed down 2.2%, Douyu (DOYU.O) fell nearly 6% and Baidu (BIDU.O) rose nearly 2%.

Major European stock indexes closed lower across the board. Europe's Stoxx 50 index closed down 0.24%, Germany's DAX30 lost 0.01% and Britain's FTSE 100 lost 0.19%.

Market Focus

1. Minutes of the Federal Reserve's November meeting: It will maintain restricted interest rates and act cautiously in the future. It may still raise interest rates again.

2. U.S. existing-home sales totaled 3.79 million on an annualized basis in October, the lowest level since August 2010.

3. The United States brokered a four-to-five-day cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in which the two sides would exchange hostages. Israel's prime minister said the conflict would continue beyond the end of the agreement.

4. U.S. military officials: U.S. and coalition forces were attacked at Al Asad Air Base in Iraq, causing minor injuries and damage to infrastructure. The United States fought back in self-defense.

5. IEA head of oil Markets: Even if Opec + oil output cuts are extended to 2024, a slight surplus is still expected in the global market.

6. Russian Energy Minister: Considering a complete lifting of the export ban on summer diesel, but no such plans for winter diesel; Iran expects oil production to increase to 4 million barrels a day in 2024-2025, Oil Ministry said.

7. Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England: There is a case for a pause for an extended period, keeping interest rates where they are. Mann, the Bank of England's monetary policy commissioner, said the prospect of increased inflation persistence meant tighter monetary policy was needed.

8. Canada's annual CPI slowed to 3.1% in October, the slowest pace since June last year

Institutional Perspective

01

Morgan Stanley

【Morgan Stanley：Opec is expected to continue curbs as it faces key output decisions】

According to Morgan Stanley's latest report, OPEC is expected to continue to restrict production and broadly stabilize oil inventories at current levels, supporting Brent crude prices to stay in the mid-$80-90 per barrel range. “Opec's production decisions are almost always important, but they are especially critical now,” the report said.

02

Goldman Sachs

【Goldman Sachs：The concentration of hedge fund holdings is at a record high】

Hedge-fund ownership concentration has reached an all-time high as asset managers increase their bets on the “Big Seven” US stocks, Goldman Sachs said in a report on Tuesday. The stellar performance of the “Big Seven” this year has significantly boosted portfolio returns for these hedge funds. Stocks identified by Goldman as the most popular hedge fund bets have returned a whopping 31% so far this year. That compares with a 19% gain for the S&P 500.

03

Commerzbank

【Commerzbank：The Fed minutes are unlikely to leave any significant impact on gold】

The Commerzbank economists said the Fed minutes were unlikely to leave any significant impact on gold: “Now that concerns about conflict in the Middle East have significantly receded, the US interest rate outlook has regained the upper hand for gold. Against this backdrop, the minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting, due Tuesday, may be of interest. For many FOMC members, another rate hike isn't off the table yet, a fact that may again be reflected in the minutes. Still, since the early November meeting, signs have mounted that the Fed may have reached peak rates. After all, in addition to weak economic indicators, inflation fell more than expected in October. As such, any negative impact of the minutes on prices should be limited.”